Arteta confirms Arsenal's new status with Toney-Nketiah swap
Robin Bairner
- Updated: 27 Sept 2023 08:17 BST
- 4 min read
Arsenal have been tipped with making a January swap deal with Brentford, with the Gunners seeking to sign Ivan Toney and prepared to send Eddie Nketiah in the opposite direction.
FootballTransfers’ information is that Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta is hesitant over a deal for Toney at that point in the season given that he will not have played competitive football since a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in early May and will be short of match sharpness at a vital stage of the campaign.
Nevertheless, sources have indicated that the Brentford centre-forward is a player the Gunners do have under consideration, so The Sun’s report that Nketiah could be sent in the opposite direction is valid.
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It also shows that Arteta’s Arsenal are now at a crossroads. Whereas previous transfer windows have been about building the club for the future, the Gunners would cross into a very definite phase of concentrating on the present.
This began in the summer with the signings of Declan Rice and Kai Havertz, but a January statement signing would confirm that the days of signing the likes of Ben White, Aaron Ramsdale and even to an extent Martin Odegaard because of what they might become are behind the club.
Now it is purely about arming themselves for a title challenge.
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Nketiah, after all, is 24 years old and, according to data analytics experts SciSports, the Hale End academy product has the capacity to become just as good a centre forward as England international Toney, who Arsenal would surely pay a premium towards if they were to sign in the forthcoming transfer window.
Any deal would be a firm indication that Arteta is seeking to further accelerate Arsenal’s title challenge this season. It would be the manager thinking about the here and now, and not what might be in 18 months or two years. This should be taken as a sign of confidence.
Toney vs Nketiah
Toney would be an immediate upgrade on Nketiah if his 2022/23 numbers were maintained.
The Brentford man offered a substantially higher goal return than Nketiah and did so along the lines of his Expected Goals (xG), suggesting that the number is repeatable. His xG figure was also significantly higher than Nketiah’s.
| Stat (per 90) | Ivan Toney | Eddie Nketiah | Gabriel Jesus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.57 | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| xG | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| Assists | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Shots | 2.18 | 2.45 | 2.90 |
Indeed, Toney’s key attacking metrics are far more similar to Gabriel Jesus’ than they are Nketiah, suggesting that the Brentford man would be a sizeable upgrade.
If Arsenal really want to go for the title - and of course they now do - this is a move they should push for.
