'The Man Utd tax': Branthwaite transfer value and more HUGE Old Trafford overpays

Updated: 24 Jun 2024 08:14 BST
6 min read

Tax is in the news every day right now - after all it is election season in the UK. But it isn't a narrative reserved only for politics.

As the summer transfer window swings into top gear, 'The Man Utd tax' is getting more and more play as it becomes a widely accepted transfer market analogy. It's a description which absolutely has legs.

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As one of the world's richest clubs - a commercial behemoth with a massive global fanbase - United have historically had resources to match. And boy, has that come back to haunt them.

The price of a player when the Red Devils come calling often appears to be enhanced significantly, and all too often it's a price they've been willing to pay.

A club with a ton of money, seeking to return to former glories, often translates to desperation. And desperate is something you never want to be in the transfer market.

This summer the window is only days old and already we appear to have an example of 'The Man Utd tax' with the chase for Everton defender Jarrad Branthwaite.

Branthwaite is a talented young player with potential, of that there is no doubt. But talk of Everton wanting £70-80m for their star asset is insanity. We said as much when asked for our take by media this week.

While Branthwaite's value has rocketed in the last 12 months after his successful transition from a loan spell in the Eredivisie to regular Premier League action, and a new long-term Goodison contract, it's still woefully short of that reported Everton asking price. Right now we have him valued at €26.2m (£22m).

That valuation, using our ETV model - developed over five years using 630,000 historical transfers and a raft of key metrics - is based on data. There is no human sentiment involved.

So that initial United offer - reported as £35m plus add-ons and seen as a major lowball in some quarters - is nothing of the sort. It's relatively sensible.

Of course the big question now is how far Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his Old Trafford brains trust will move from that initial position. In the past, too often, the club have eventually landed somewhere near the initial asking price.

This summer, trying to usher in a new era and operating with a limited budget, things must be different. And right now all the right noises are being made. Fabrizio Romano said just this week that there will be no "Man Utd tax" when it comes to Branthwaite, no "crazy money".

'The Man Utd tax': Historical overpays

So what about past examples of the 'Man Utd tax', and the times when they have paid in full. Or overpaid in full. Here are just a few of the most stunning...

Antony

The Brazilian winger was valued at just €32.7m (£27.6m) when United paid a staggering €95m (£80m) to acquire him from Ajax in August of 2022. Reports suggest not even United scouts had his value at anything like the eventual price, but pay it the club did. The results, so far, are not looking good with Antony's ETV back down at €29.8m (£25.2m) after rising initially following a promising start to his career in M16.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

As with Branthwaite, when the target is young and English, that 'Man Utd tax' is likely to inflate even further. Wan-Bissaka is the perfect example of this. We valued him at €12.9m (£10.9m) when United paid £50m to sign him in the summer of 2019. He had played just 42 Premier League games. Wan-Bissaka remains at Old Trafford but has been displaced by Diogo Dalot, and is now valued at just €15.2m (£12.8m).

Harry Maguire

United ended a year-long pursuit of the 2018 England World Cup star when they paid out a world record fee for a defender of £80m in the summer of 2019. His ETV at the time was just €39m (£32.9m). After five underwhelming years at Old Trafford, Maguire is about to head into the final year of his current contract with an exit appearing to be the likeliest outcome. His current ETV is now just €10.7m (£9m).

© IMAGO - Some glaring examples of 'the Man Utd tax'.

Andre Onana

Erik ten Hag wanted a new goalkeeper in the summer of 2023, and Andre Onana was the man en vogue. The former Ajax star, who had helped Inter to a Champions League final just a year after moving on a free transfer from Holland, was valued at around €50m (£42.4m) by the Nerazzurri - a price United eventually would meet. We had him valued at just €20.05m (£17.3m).

Rasmus Hojlund

The young Dane had undoubted potential when he arrived at Old Trafford from Atalanta for a massive fee of €73.9m (£62.4m). We recognised that potential with a valuation of €37.35m (£31.5m), but the body of work was still so limited (9 goals in 32 games during a solitary season in Serie A). Way out of whack with the eventual fee. This deal may yet work out for United - Hojlund displayed flashes during his first season in the Premier League. But the jury is still, most definitely, out.