Borussia Dortmund's 'perfect storm' set to sweep away Chelsea

Sam McGuire

• Updated: 3 Mar 2023 13:44 GMT
• 3 min read

It was a summer of change for Borussia Dortmund.

Marco Rose left after just one season in charge at the Westfalenstadion and Edin Terzic was given the job on a full-time basis. Terzic had a stint as interim boss after the departure of Lucien Favre during the 2020/21 campaign but the club opted not to make it a permanent move at the time despite him guiding BVB to the DFK Pokal.

They also lost both Manual Akanji and Erling Haaland to Manchester City. Niklas Sule, Nico Schlotterbeck and Sebastien Haller arrived to fill the void left by the duo’s departure but it still isn’t ideal to lose a starting centre-back and centre-forward the same summer you replace your manager.

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This season could’ve easily been written off as a campaign of transition. Especially after Haller was diagnosed with cancer. The former Ajax man completed his treatments but only returned to the first-team picture at the end of January.

It did look as though this might be a forgettable season for the black and yellow too. They won just five and lost four of their opening 10 Bundesliga matches. They also won just two of their Champions League group-stage games. They only lost once - to Manchester City - and qualified on nine points, three ahead of Sevilla, but it was far from a convincing showing.

Yet here we are in March with Terzic’s men sitting joint top of the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich. BVB also have a 1-0 lead over Chelsea from the first leg of their Champions League round-of-16 clash. Dortmund are on a seven-match winning streak in the German top-flight and this extends to nine if all competitions are included.

They were the ones to end Bayer Leverkusen’s impressive run of form. Dortmund also navigated their way past surprise packages Mainz and SC Freiburg during this run too.

In fact, Terzic’s men have won more games than any other Bundesliga team this season (15).

The secret behind their recent successes is balance.

The numbers behind Dortmund's turnaround

When looking back at their inconsistent start to the season, BVB kept four clean across 10 outings but conceded 14 goals. They were breached on two or more occasions in a single match in half of those ties. Dortmund managed just 13 goals in those games and scored two or more just three times.

If you looked at goals scored and conceded on a per 90 basis, BVB were running at a deficit (1.4 to 1.3).

In their last 12 outings, they have kept five clean sheets - not too dissimilar to the 40% they managed in their opening 10. However, the big difference can be seen when looking at goals. Dortmund have conceded 13 times at a rate of 1.08 per 90. They have also conceded just two or more goals on three occasions. In the first 10 games, this occurred 50% of the time. Since then, it has happened just 25% of the time.

So, fewer goals in general and when they do concede, they are managing to handle these situations much better. There is a solid platform for the team and this is making life easier for the attack.

Instead of needing three goals to win a game, two is usually enough. They have scored 32 in those 12 matches at a rate of 2.7 per 90. Dortmund have scored two or more in all but two of those matches too.

Everything seems to be coming together for them at the right time. Karim Adeyemi - although now out injured - had been flying over recent weeks and netted the winner against Chelsea. Haller is back and scoring. Terzic has been able to give Jamie Bynoe-Gittens minutes. He is likely going to be the next BVB player courted by Premier League clubs once Jude Bellingham departs.

Youssoufa Moukoko justified the hype with a number of match-winning performances when BVB needed someone to step up. Marco Reus is back from injury too now giving them even more options in the middle and final thirds while Julian Brandt has really come to the fore over recent weeks. He is their leading scorer in the Bundesliga with eight goals and he’s also chipped in with four assists.

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It has just been the perfect storm for the club and this is why they find themselves in such a healthy position. Few tipped them for a title challenge or a run in the Champions League, but right now, both look very viable. Knocking Chelsea out, albeit a Blues side out of form, would still be a statement victory.