Arda Guler: Real Madrid’s Turkish teenage wizard

Neel Shelat

• Updated: 10 Oct 2023 12:42 BST
• 7 min read

One of the most exciting transfers from Turkiye in recent memory saw teenage sensation Arda Guler leave for Real Madrid this summer. There was a lot of excitement around what the young starlet might do in Spain, but his time with Los Blancos got off to a rough start due to an injury he picked up in pre-season.

He is now close to returning to action, so it is worth revisiting what all the hype was about.

Coming through at Fenerbahce after five years at Geneclerbirligi, Guler was regarded as one of the brightest talents to ever emerge from Turkiye. He made his senior debut in the UEFA Europa League at the age of just 16 years old but had to make do with substitute appearances for most of the 2021/22 season. He had to wait over a year before properly breaking through in the latter half of the 2022/23 season, by when the whole world was made aware of his talents.

Top-class playmaker

In just about half a season of regular action in the Turkish Super Lig, Guler established himself as one of the best playmakers in the division.

As his spider chart shows, he posed a multifaceted threat whenever he had the ball. His chance creation and passing stood out the most along with his dribbling and ball-carrying, but he was not a half-bad shooter either.

Guler has an absolutely magical left foot, so he excelled in a free role starting on the right wing for Fenerbahce. His heatmap from the season shows that quite well, highlighting a strong concentration of action on the wing but also spilling into the halfspace and a little bit beyond.

Clearly, the 18-year-old should be profiled as a roaming playmaker coming in from the right side. With that in mind, it is worth focusing on how he fares in a few key metrics for such a player.

As we previously saw, Guler poses an incredible on-ball threat through both passing and carrying. Last season, he averaged a league-high 0.36 xA (Expected Assists) per 90, as well as ranking in the 98th percentile for xT (Expected Threat), 97th percentile for xT from passes and 96th percentile for xT from carries. In simple terms: an opposition team would not want to see him receive the ball.

Even something as simple as receiving the ball is an important aspect of Guler’s play. He has wizard-like close control with his left foot and uses it exceptionally to manipulate opposition defenders and get past them, adding in flicks and tricks as well as well-executed body feints for good measure to become a one-on-one dribbler who can get past anyone.

— Reasons (@LFCReasons) October 7, 2023

Being able to get past opponents is one thing, but it means little if there is no chance-creating end product following dribbles. What makes Guler such an exciting talent is that his exceptional technical ability is matched by his incredible footballing intelligence and vision, which is why he can pull off assists like this:

It should be no surprise, then, that Guler created lots of high-quality chances last season both from set-pieces and open play, particularly using such through balls.

The one aspect of his game Guler might want to work on a little is his shooting, although he does have an absolutely stunning left-footed finish in his locker as he showed for his first senior international goal.

However, at least for Fenerbahce, the young attacker tended to get a little too trigger-happy with his shooting sometimes. He did return with 4 league goals last season and his underlying shot-quality numbers paint him as a comfortably above-average finisher, but there were some cases among his 34 attempts where passing to a teammate might have been a better option.

Role at Real Madrid

There can be no questions asked of Guler’s talent or ability, but it is worth considering how he might fit in this Real Madrid side.

The Turkish international was likely signed to be a right winger in their 4-3-3 system from last season, but that position has completely evaporated now as Carlo Ancelotti has switched to a fluid 4-4-2-diamond system to accommodate the abundant midfield talent in his quality.

Nevertheless, there are a couple of positions where Guler might slot in. For one, Vinicius Junior is used on the left of the front two from where he is free to drift out wide, so Guler could play a similar role on the right. Playing both of them together might not be the best of ideas due to the absence of a recognised striker it would lead to, so the Turkish international could come in for matches where Vinicius is rested.

Another instance where Guler’s creative abilities might prove handy is against opponents that set out to defend deep and frustrate Real Madrid. Federico Valverde is a more well-rounded option for the right-sided midfield position, but he does tend to get forward on the right when the opportunity presents itself. Against such teams, Guler’s superior on-ball qualities might come in handy to unlock the opposition's low block.

Evidently, there are ways for Guler to accommodate in this Real Madrid side, so fans should eagerly look forward to his debut in the near future once he is back to full fitness.