Barcelona primed to make first mistake of the transfer window

Robin Bairner

• Updated: 29 Apr 2024 10:19 BST
• 18 min read

Barcelona have a verbal agreement in place to sign Guido Rodriguez from Real Betis, according to Fabrizio Romano.

The Argentine has every chance of becoming Barcelona’s first signing of the summer, yet the 30-year-old threatens to be a waste of resources for the cash-strapped Camp Nou outfit.

Guido is out of contract in the summer and would join the Blaugrana on a free transfer, but while there are some undoubted upsides to his arrival, the deal is simply further confirmation of how far behind the Catalans have fallen.

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“Barcelona have Guido Rodriguez deal under control with terms of initial, verbal agreement ready on free transfer from Betis,” Romano said on X regards a two-year agreement with the option of another season.

“Nothing has been signed or guaranteed yet as there are still key details left.”

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Guido Rodriguez: Not up to the Barcelona standard

First, the positives.

Rodriguez represents an upgrade on Barcelona’s existing central midfielders according to data analytics experts SciSports.

He has a SciSkill score of 100.8, which is a mark calculated using hundreds of in-game data points. This is in excess of Oriol Romeu’s 85.6 and much stronger than Sergi Roberto’s 77.2.

To this end, he would be an improvement, but he is still not Barcelona standard.

Rogriguez vs Oriol Romeo: Development

Ilkay Gundogan, Gavi, Pedri and Frenkie de Jong are all superior in the central midfield area alone, while he would only be their 12th strongest player overall.

Perhaps most worryingly, he would only be Real Madrid’s eighth-strongest central midfielder and is much weaker than Los Blancos’ primary defensive player in this area, Aurelien Tchouameni. This, remember, is the team Barca need to chase down over the next 12 months.

Adding to Barcelona’s problems, SciSports ranks the Catalans as only the 63rd best transfer option for Guido Rodriguez via their Club Fit tool.

While the Blaugrana would allow him to develop, SciSports is sceptical of the game time he will receive and, more importantly, the playing style of Xavi’s side. Given just one star in terms of their style, this suggests that Barca are not in a position to maximise the talents of the central player.

Compare this to Betis, who are given four stars for playing style and five stars for formation. Rodriguez has been able to thrive in these conditions, making him one of LaLiga's best midfielders of the season, as the infographic below demonstrates.

Guido Rodriguez vs LaLiga midfielders: 2023/24

The Seville outfit have a Club Fit score of 83 – making them the best match for the holding midfielder.

Atletico Madrid, who were also interested in him, come second on 81 with Roma next on 80.

Although Guido is ready to move to Barcelona and Barca are ready to sign him, this does not appear a transfer made in heaven. With money so tight, this is not the type of deal they can afford to get wrong.