Richarlison to replace Lukaku? Are Chelsea making another mistake?
Robin Bairner
- Updated: 20 Jun 2022 21:43 BST
- 3 min read
Everton striker Richarlison has been earmarked as a possible replacement for Romelu Lukaku at Chelsea.
Lukaku is apparently destined to head back to Inter on loan after a thoroughly disappointing first season back at Stamford Bridge. Having arrived as the club record signing in the summer of 2021, the Belgium international managed to score only eight Premier League goals in 26 appearances.
The low point was an infamous fixture against Crystal Palace in which he made only seven touches in 90 minutes – including kick off.
The Daily Mail reports that Richarlison could be the man to replace ‘Big Rom’, although they will have to fight off both Tottenham and Arsenal to secure the striker.
Would the 25-year-old represent any upgrade to Lukaku, though?
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Lukaku v Richarlison
Data analytics experts SciSports rated Richarlison as one of the worst performing centre-forwards in the Premier League last season. Indeed, they placed him 55th out of 61 players, while Lukaku actually made the top 10, despite the perception he had a disastrous campaign.
Indeed, Richarlison did not rank in the top third in any of SciSports’ 10 key metrics compared to the Blues’ striker, who made this grade in five, albeit two of these were largely to do with his efforts in defence.
Season 2021/22 comparison
| Richarlison | Lukaku | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 46 | 49 |
| Goals | 20 | 20 |
| xG | 18 | 22 |
| Assists | 6 | 1 |
| xA | 6 | 8 |
| Pass % | 68 | 78 |
| Challenges won % | 38 | 38 |
| Aerials won % | 29 | 43 |
| Tackles won % | 50 | 31 |
But surely the Brazilian has to be better in front of goal than Lukaku, right?
In 2021/22, Richarlison was the superior player in this regard. Both players finished the season on 20 goals but the Brazilian outperformed his xG by three. In contrast, Lukaku underperformed by two.
The long-term trend, though, is that the Belgian is the more reliable finisher. In the 2020/21 season, he scored 41 times from an xG of 41 and in the previous campaign he scored a massive nine times more than he could have been expected. Richarlison, by contrast, underperformed by two over these campaigns.
Meanwhile, Lukaku’s team-mates hardly helped his assist figures last term. Although he posted just a single decisive pass, his expected assists figure of eight shows that his colleagues were remarkably wasteful with the chances he provided them.
Statistically, the 2021/22 season was an anomaly for Lukaku whereas for Richarlison it marked an overperformance of what he has achieved in the past.
Of course, there is more to this case than raw numbers – is the Belgian simply not fitting in back at Stamford Bridge, for example – but Chelsea are unlikely to find that Richarlison is their silver bullet to solving the issue.
