Erling Haaland: The secrets behind his record-obliterating start at Man City
Neel Shelat
- Updated: 5 Oct 2022 09:51 BST
- 7 min read
Erling Haaland has proven his doubters wrong. He will not fit Manchester City’s style of play, they said. He will need time to adapt to the Premier League, they said.
In reality, he has 17 goals in 11 matches and has already obliterated a string of records. The latest of these came in Sunday's 6-3 win over Manchester United, when he became the first player in Premier League history to score hat-tricks in three consecutive home games. Meanwhile, his tally of 14 league goals means that there are just five sides in the entire division who have scored more than him this season.
It has been a phenomenal baptism at Man City, but what are the secrets to his success?
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The numbers
We are just eight matches into the Premier League season, so the sample size for data is not ideal. Nonetheless, we can deduce the obvious while taking a look at Haaland’s pizza chart: that he has been getting on the end of high-quality chances, attempting a lot of shots and scoring a lot of goals.
If he manages to sustain this rate of goalscoring and stay fit for the full season, Haaland is on course to score over 65 goals in the league this season. Even if he slows down by 50%, the Norway striker would still go on to score 40 league goals. In short, if Haaland stays fit, he will not just break Alan Shearer’s record of most goals scored in a Premier League season – he will obliterate it.
As has been flagged, I'd been switching between views and left Kevin Phillips off, which slightly changes the stat. Corrected below. pic.twitter.com/Dc2TFvLclE
— Mitchell Stirling (@MitchellSt) October 2, 2022
At such times, many turn to the xG gods in search of some solace, hoping to find that the xG overperformance is sustainable. As of today, Haaland is scoring from 39% of the shots he is attempting in the Premier League, and when he manages to hit the target, there is a two-in-three chance that the ball will find the back of the net.
While it is true that Haaland has scored about five more goals in the league than the average player would, it is also important to remember that Haaland is better than the average player – and by quite some margin too. The Norwegian international has been outperforming his xG figures by significant amounts in every season since he broke through at Salzburg, so the fact is that he is an exceptional finisher, and it is very unlikely that his goalscoring rate will drop off drastically.
The tactics
Haaland has seamlessly become a key player at Manchester City, but not everyone was convinced that this would happen so quickly. Many wondered if he and City would need time to adapt to one another, but in reality, he has slotted in slickly.
Pep Guardiola is famous for his tactical innovations, and while he has experimented with things like double-inverted full-backs this season, he has predominantly retained the 2-3-5 setup that worked wonders last season.
The key difference, of course, is that last season the central attacker usually was a false nine, but now, Haaland is asked to stay further up the pitch and play on the shoulder of the opposition’s last man.
This is evident in his heatmap for the season, which shows that he has mostly operated high up the pitch, primarily inside the penalty area.
As far as the main business – scoring goals – is concerned, the formula was quite simple. Last season, Manchester City were excellent at creating chances through cut-backs from the sides or edge of the box, and Haaland is one of the deadliest strikers in the world inside the box thanks to his exceptional movement and finishing. Put two and two together, and you get this.
Such cut-backs have already become a recurrent theme in the chances that Haaland is getting on the end of, as this visualisation depicts.
As if Manchester City weren’t dangerous enough in attack anyway, Haaland has added new dimensions to the threat that they can possess. For starters, he has made them far more dangerous in set-piece situations thanks to his aerial prowess. The 22-year-old Norwegian centre-forward has scored five goals from such situations in the league. For context, no other team has done better than that this season.
Additionally, one of the downsides of City’s usage of a false-nine last season was that they could not always get in behind opposition defences and go through on goal, but now with Haaland, they can.
He showed this in his Premier League debut, scoring his second goal against West Ham after angling his run between the two opposition centre-backs …
… and using his pace to get a clear shot at goal, which he converted in typically clinical fashion.
As far as strikers go, there are many who are rapid but can be physically outmatched and inversely many who are strong but not so quick. The trouble for defenders with Haaland is that he is both, and that can often make him seem unstoppable. Crystal Palace were given a practical demonstration of this.
First of all, Haaland once again makes a run between two defenders …
… and uses his pace to get to the ball. The defenders are closing in this time, though, so he is under pressure …
… but he almost effortlessly shrugs one off, and gets his shot away before the other can reach him.
Even under all this pressure, his finish remains pinpoint, so there is nothing the goalkeeper can do about the goal either.
As if all of this was not enough, he (sort of) flies too.
And on top of all that, Manchester City have this player called Kevin De Bruyne who can pick him out like a magnet finding a needle in a haystack.
It’s clear that Haaland can score a lot of goals can Manchester City, but what about his team-mates? Can he help them get on the scoresheet too?
The answer to that question is also affirmative. The ex-Dortmund man already has three assists to his name and has been creating good chances for his fellow attackers at Manchester City.
Here’s a pass that would not look out of place in a compilation of De Bruyne’s best assists.
We could go on, but it is clear that Haaland is having an unbelievable start to life at Manchester City. The two are a match made in heaven in every sense of the phrase, whether you consider Manchester City’s style of play and squad profile, Haaland’s style of play, or even his connection to the club through his father.
The Norway international has made it a habit of breaking records on a weekly basis since moving over to England, and he looks in no mood to stop. Given that his national team have not qualified for the World Cup, he should be rejuvenated after the turn of the year while most other players will be tired, so there is every possibility that he will sustain this rate of goalscoring throughout the season.
At just 22 years of age, Haaland has a long career ahead of him still but already is among the best of the best in world football right now. If he stays at this Manchester City side for a few years, his habit of breaking records could easily become a legacy.
