Josko Gvardiol: Real Madrid, Chelsea and Arsenal target can be the world’s best

Neel Shelat

• Updated: 8 Dec 2022 16:06 GMT
• 7 min read

Croatia’s run to the 2022 World Cup quarter-finals has been underpinned by a rock solid defence, with the standout player in this department centre-back Josko Gvardiol, who has spectacularly justified transfer links to Chelsea and Real Madrid in Qatar.

The 20-year-old defender has been playing his club football for RB Leipzig in Germany since the summer of 2021, having joined the club from Croatian giants Dinamo Zagreb, whose youth academy he came through. In just a year in Germany, Gvardiol’s performances began to draw interest from Europe’s biggest clubs. Chelsea were reportedly very close to signing him last summer, but he ended up signing a longer contract at Leipzig till 2027.

Realistically, the only thing that does is give RB Leipzig a stronger position in negotiations in the upcoming transfer windows because Gvardiol is only garnering further interest with every performance. Chelsea are set to pursuehis signature, but they will be joined by the likes of Real Madrid and Arsenal among others.

Clearly, Gvardiol is going to be one of the hottest properties in the upcoming transfer windows in 2023, so let us take a look at why he is so sought after.

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Defensive strength

This is quite something to say for a centre-back who is just 20 years old, but Gvardiol’s game really does not have any real weaknesses. He is solid defensively as he reads the game very well, is strong in duels and is a ball progression supremo.

His biggest moment at the World Cup so far was the stoppage-time clearance he made to take the ball off Romelu Lukaku’s toes in Croatia’s crunch clash with Belgium. Failure to make that tackle would surely have resulted in his side’s elimination. It was the definition of a clutch defensive play.

This was one of the 25 clearances Gvardiol has made at the World Cup to date – the third-highest tally among all players in the tournament. His five tackles and seven interceptions also show his great reading of the game which, along with the similarities in their names, has earned him the nickname ‘Little Pep’ in reference to the current Manchester City manager.

The Croatia international is not one to rush into 50-50 challenges, but when he does find himself in such situations, he tends to be successful more often than not. At this World Cup, he has won 60% of his 20 duels, and in the Bundesliga, his success rate goes up to 61.54% in 32 duels this season.

All-round ball progression ability

Gvardiol’s defensive ability is very good, but what makes him really stand out as a world-class prospect for the elite clubs are his on-ball abilities. His pizza chart from the Bundesliga this season shows just how those are:

It is important to note that RB Leipzig have alternated between a back-three and back-four this season having changed head coaches, so Gvardiol has played both as a left centre-back in a duo and as a wide centre-back on the left of a three. These two roles are different in terms of the exact areas of the pitch the 20-year-old defender gets to operate in, which is why his heatmap for the season is spread out both horizontally and vertically on the left.

Of course, this also has an impact on where his defensive actions are made. In a back three, he can engage his opponents in duels higher up the pitch and even close to the halfway line, but he has to drop deeper and more central when playing in a back four.

Crucially, Gvardiol has remained Leipzig’s chief ball progressor in either position whenever he has played, averaging a little over five progressive passes per match. Looking at the event map of such passes, we see that the centre-back is adept at getting the ball down the line, but also looks for passes into the tight central areas and regularly plays crossfield switches too.

Gvardiol also tends to be quite adventurous in terms of moving forward with the ball at his feet. His average of 24 carries per 90 is clearly the highest in the Bundesliga, and he almost averages one take-on per 90, which is incredibly high for a centre-back. His progressive carries map from the season shows his tendency to take his team into the opposition half through his ball carrying.

Clearly, the Croatian international has been mightily impressive this season, but his stats looked even better in 2021/22 when he spent the majority of his time as a wide centre-back on the left of a back-three. Besides his ball progression, he was also able to pose a regular creative threat in the final third and pitched in with a couple of set-piece goals.

World-beating potential

As far as Croatia’s manager Zlatko Dalic is concerned, Gvardiol already is the best centre-back in the world, but we will be a little more patient before making such claims. Undoubtedly, though, he is right up there, and given the fact that he is just 20 years old, he absolutely has the potential to become the world’s best centre-back.

Gvardiol will need to ensure that he gets his next transfer right in order to fulfil his potential, and he does seem to be doing that as he decided against a hasty move to Chelsea last summer and instead stayed at Leipzig. Soon enough, he will have the pick of Europe’s biggest clubs for his next destination, so he must choose wisely.

Ideally, a side using a back-three would get the best out of his ball-playing ability, but there are many more factors to consider including playing style, stability and the head coach.

For now, Gvardiol will continue to focus on his national team at the World Cup. His side will be coming up against an incredibly formidable Brazilian attack in the quarter-final, so they will need their young performance to step up big time if they are to advance to the semi-finals again.