No wins in three - have Arsenal been found out tactically?

Sam McGuire

• Updated: 14 Feb 2023 11:04 GMT
• 5 min read

In every title-winning season, there is one match that fans point to as the moment.

Usually, it involves an injury-time winner but at times it can be a game in which a team has trailed in before managing to turn it around. It is a reward for their never-say-die attitude and though it can feel lucky, it generally isn’t.

Rivals fans must’ve felt Arsenal had their moment in the win over Manchester United in January. Mikel Arteta’s men fell behind to a Marcus Rashford strike before taking a 2-1 lead. A defensive error allowed Lisandro Martinez to equalise and despite not deserving anything from the match, it did feel as though Erik Ten Hag would be taking a point back to Old Trafford.

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But then it happened.

Eddie Nketiah deftly poked the ball beyond a sprawling David De Gea in stoppage time to send the Emirates into raptures. It was an instinctive finish from Gabriel Jesus’ understudy but one that felt calm, composed and confident at the time.

Just days earlier, Manchester City had overturned a 2-0 half-time scoreline to beat Spurs 4-2. The pressure was on Arsenal and dropped points against United would’ve only added to that narrative. The Nketiah goal emphatically put an end to those concerns and the attention, in the blink of an eye, was back on the reigning champions.

Since then, however, Arsenal haven’t won a game. Man City knocked them out of the FA Cup, Everton shocked them at Goodison Park in Sean Dyche’s first game in charge before Brentford claimed a 1-1 draw at the Emirates.

The Gunners still lead the way in the Premier League but the gap is now three points. Yes, they do have a game in hand and this lead could be extended to six but there is no guarantee that Arteta’s side do take maximum points in that game. Right now we can only deal in absolutes and as things stand, their lead at the summit stands at just three.

When they beat United, their lead was five with a game in hand. It might not seem like that much of a shift but it is. Previously, Arsenal could’ve lost both Premier League matches against City and still had a lead over their title rivals. That safety net no longer exists.

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Pep Guardiola’s side are capable of putting together obscene winning streaks and that will no doubt be something Arteta and his players are well aware of. Such knowledge impacts performances and this couldn’t come at a worse time.

Performances have already been inconsistent over recent weeks.

Arsenal dominated the ball and had more shots than their hosts in the loss to Everton. They lost the Expected Goals battle though and did give up four big chances. They controlled the ball but not necessarily the space and it hurt them.

The same thing happened against Brentford. Arsenal had 69% of the ball and outshot their opponents 23-9. Yet the Bees racked up an xG of 2.01 to Arsenal’s 1.55 and had three big chances to the host’s one.

It is too early to suggest the Gunners have been figured out but we do have the makings of a pattern. Opponents aren’t looking to dictate the ball and are instead ceding possession in favour of controlling space.

Simply put, both Everton and Brentford allowed Arsenal to have sterile possession in areas that couldn’t hurt them. They would soak up pressure and hit them on the break. This is eerily similar to what happened to Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp. Teams quickly realised that going toe-to-toe with this team wasn’t a good idea so they went into safe mode and looked to frustrate. The Reds had to adapt to being a possession-based team who could also dominate the space.

Arsenal have all of the tools and a manager who understands this part of the game, but implementing it during the season isn’t always easy. Maintaining control of the ball while also dominating the space is a tricky thing to balance if you aren’t used to having to do the latter. However, this is a consequence of being as good as the Gunners have been.

The match against Manchester City this week won’t be a title decider but it might well decide if the Gunners are going to be the hunted or the hunter over the next couple of weeks. That alone might impact Arteta’s thinking and it could see a change in his tactics. Having said that, the title will be won in the matches Arsenal are expected to win. Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see how they react to this negative run of results.