What the hell has gone wrong at Man City this season?

Sam McGuire

• 9 Feb 2023 12:45 GMT
• 5 min read

The arrival of Erling Haaland at Manchester City was supposed to elevate one of the best teams ever to the next level. Some even thought Pep Guardiola’s dominant side might win all 38 Premier League games this season having added the powerhouse, prolific Norwegian.

Yet here we are in February with City trailing Arsenal by five points having played a game more. The Citizens have dropped points in 33% of their matches this term, up from the 23% last season.

While Haaland has shattered various records on his way to 25 league goals, the team has suffered as a result of this. This should have been expected. When you go from using a false-nine to deploying the purest of No.9s, there is going to be an adaption period. The team had to evolve and sacrifices had to be made.

Erling Haaland at Man City: Goals, assists, results & fixtures in 2022/23

During the title-winning 2021/22 campaign, City scored 2.6 goals per 90 and had an Expected Goals average of 2.6 They created high-value opportunities and converted them. This season, they have 2.5 goals per 90 from an xG90 average of 2.07. They are still creating well but there is a significant overperformance when looking at actual goals. You cannot necessarily rely on that; when Haaland isn’t able to make the most of chances, the team will struggle.

City are also conceding more goals this season (exactly 1, up from 0.7) and have a higher xG Against average (0.81 up from 0.7). They kept clean sheets in 55% of their matches during the 2021/22 campaign and that average has dropped to 38% this season. This cannot be directly tied to Haaland but the system has had to change to fit him in and this could be a by-product of that.

In a nutshell, City aren’t as dangerous going forward while the opposition are having better opportunities. They aren’t as in control this season. Their xG difference (xG for minus xG Against) has dropped from 1.9 per 90 to 1.26.

MORE: Haaland already preparing to leave Man City

Haaland focused

The attack is now built around Haaland and this is making the Citizens a little bit more predictable. He tops the xG90 charts in the Premier League with 0.93 and he’s attempting 4.1 shots per 90. Next up for Man City is Kevin De Bruyne with 2.6 while Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez are both averaging 2.4 shots per 90.

What is interesting, however, is that the No.9 is only City player to have an xG average of over 0.5 this season.

Last season, they had four players average over 0.5 xG on a per 90 basis, with Riyad Mahrez (0.67), Raheem Sterling (0.61), Gabriel Jesus (0.52) and Ilkay Gundogan (0.5) all proving themselves to be reliable goal threats. All four players were averaging 2.5 or more shots per 90, while De Bruyne chipped in with 3.2 shots.

The threat was spread, as were the goals. The same cannot be said this season.

Not only has the goal threat reduced but so has the general threat.

Sterling and Jesus topped the charts for City last season when looking at take-ons attempted. Both played in wider areas and had the ability to beat a man. Both also ranked in the top four for xG. This season, however, the top two for take-ons attempted is Jack Grealish and Joao Cancelo. With the latter now at Bayern Munich, Bernardo Silva joins the City No.10 in the top two.

It is a shift in where the take-ons are occurring and what they mean, in a way. Sterling and Jesus would beat a man and drive into the penalty area. Silva is operating in much deeper parts of the pitch while Grealish is often doing his best work around the box.

That unpredictability in the final third is no longer there. They also have fewer attackers who can beat a man, and this is the sacrifice that the club made when they allowed Sterling to join Chelsea and signed off on Jesus linking up with Mikel Arteta at Arsenal. Everything is being funnelled the way of Haaland, and though he is scoring at an insane rate, there isn’t much to it than just those goals.

City had to refresh their attack. Sterling had been there for seven campaigns while Jesus had called the Etihad home for five-and-a-half years. But there is a balance to be struck in this redesign. Losing two of your most reliable, versatile goal threats at once while signing Haaland was always going to have an impact on the team. It was always going to be a transitional season for the champions.

Haaland isn’t to blame for this, but he is the reason for it.