The proof that Arsenal are massively OVERPAYING for Declan Rice

Stuart Telford

• 15 Jul 2023 13:34 BST
• 3 min read

Arsenal have completed the signing of Declan Rice for a potential £105m. As good a player as he ism they are overpaying.

Not that Rice is a poor player, far from it. Latterly West Ham's captain, he led the Hammers to Europa Conference League glory last season and is one of the first names on Gareth Southgate's England teamsheet. But a £105m player he is not.

Rice does have a number of things that drive up his value. There is always a Premium on England players with them counting as homegrown players in the Premier League. He was also under contract until 2024 with a club option to extend that by another year.

READ: Arsenal RESPOND to Man City’s Declan Rice HIJACK

His average of 1.73 interceptions per 90 minutes over the last year put him in the 95th percentile by that measure among defensive midfielders across Europe's five major leagues, meanwhile.

— Football Transfers (@Transfersdotcom) June 27, 2023

A grain of Rice

But FootballTransfers' algorithm takes such factors into account, and Rice is currently valued at €57.8m (£49.6m) with a highest ETV of €70m (£60.2m) - well inside the total bid of £105m that Arsenal put forward.

There are also shortcomings in Rice's game. He struggles to play on the half-turn and only has an xG of 0.04, which is low, even for a defensive midfielder primarily tasked with stopping goalscoring chances at the other end.

READ: EXCLUSIVE: Declan Rice still set to join Arsenal despite Man City interest

It is understood that Arsenal were always Rice's preferred destination, meanwhile. Mikel Arteta has reportedly promised Rice he will 'be at the wheel' of his new project, and with Granit Xhaka and Thomas Partey bound for Bayer Leverkusen and Juventus respectively, it is clear he will get his game.

Pep Guardiola may not have been able to promise the same at City, with Rodri and John Stones incumbent in Rice's preferred position.