WHO'S BAD?! Jackson is a big problem for Chelsea

Sam McGuire

• Updated: 12 Sept 2023 12:18 BST
• 5 min read

Having a young, inexperienced striker leading your line is a gamble and Chelsea are finding out exactly why right now. Nicolas Jackson signed for the Blues in the summer, moving from Villarreal in a deal worth in the region of €38 million.

The 22-year-old nearly joined Bournemouth during the January transfer window but a hamstring issue derailed the potential move. He ended the season on a high in LaLiga, scoring nine goals in his final eight matches following his return from injury, and this late form was enough to convince Chelsea he was ready for a Premier League switch.

Jackson has looked fairly dangerous in his outings for Mauricio Pochettino’s side but has just one goal to his name. That arrived in Chelsea’s only win of the season so far against Luton Town.

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The stats for the Blues tell a story of bad luck.

For example, most Expected Goal (xG) models have them fourth with a total of 8.4 but they’ve only found the back of the net on five occasions - three of which were in the victory against Luton.

Pochettino’s men have a higher xG total than the likes of Arsenal (8.3), Manchester United (8.1) Liverpool (7.7) and Spurs (7.3).

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Defensively, they’re showing up well too. Only Manchester City (2.7) and Arsenal (3.7) have a lower xG Conceded total than Chelsea (4.3).

When delving a little deeper, however, the problem is a fairly obvious one. The Blues top the charts for big chances missed and Jackson is the biggest culprit for this having missed six big chances in the opening four matches. For a little context here, he missed just seven big chances for Villarreal last season.

The 22-year-old currently ranks 15th for shots per 90, averaging 3.8. He’s taking more shots than the likes of Mohamed Salah, Marcus Rashford, Diogo Jota, Julian Alvarez and Bruno Fernandes - all renowned as high-volume shooters.

He’s not working the goalkeepers enough though and he ranks 32nd for shots on target with 1.3. This is further highlighted when looking at his individual xG numbers. He’s third for xG with 3.0 from the four matches behind only Bryan Mbeumo (4.1) and Erling Haaland (4.6), both of whom take penalties and have bolstered their totals that way. Jackson is 25th for xG on Target though. This metric assigns a value to a shot based on where it goes on target.

So, what we can take from this is that he’s devaluing opportunities with poor finishing.

Right now, the Chelsea No.15 has a conversion rate of just 5% in the English top-flight. The likes of Sterling (18%), Haaland (21%), Darwin Nunez (15%) and Evan Ferguson (25%) all have significantly higher. However, given the sample size isn’t the largest right now, one or two goals for Jackson could change the landscape in the blink of an eye.

This is one of the flaws of signing a raw forward on the back of a hot streak. Prior to his injury at the turn of the year, Jackson had just two LaLiga goals across 14 appearances and Villarreal were prepared to sell him for €29m in January.

He then ended the season on a high and this streak changed the perception. When looking back at his numbers, there’s a clear overperformance that didn’t seem sustainable. It was simply the erratic nature of a young forward.

His 12 strikes in the Spanish top-flight came from an xG total of eight and an xG on Target total of 9.3. He was adding value to his efforts this time around but there was still a lot of luck involved for him to finish the season in double digits.

Jackson was averaging 2.3 shots per 90 and had a conversion rate of 22%. He finished the campaign with just 1,600 minutes to his name.

When judging young talents, you don’t really want to invest in a player with a small sample size and a fairly large overperformance. Chelsea did that though and now we’re seeing when he’s out of sorts. He wasn’t ready to spearhead a top-four challenge but that was the responsibility placed upon his shoulders. The Blues are going to have to show patience with the young forward if they’re to stand a chance of reaping the rewards down the line.

For now, though, he’s a bit of a problem for Pochettino.