Replacement? Brighton teen Ferguson is Haaland's perfect Man City PARTNER
Sam McGuire
- Updated: 7 Sept 2023 16:44 BST
- 6 min read
First it was Yves Bissouma. Then it was Graham Potter. Alexis Mac Allister had a stint as Brighton’s most desirable before his move to Liverpool and then the sole focus was on Moises Caicedo. Now, though, all eyes are firmly fixed on Evan Ferguson.
The 18-year-old netted an impressive hat-trick against Newcastle United last weekend as Brighton returned to winning ways. The week prior, Roberto De Zerbi’s men had lost 3-1 to West Ham United to end their perfect start to the 2023/24 campaign and the visit of the Magpies was, at least on paper, a potential banana skin.
Yes, Eddie Howe’s team had lost back-to-back matches to Manchester City and Liverpool, but they are a Champions League side and they needed a reaction. They had no answer to the Ferguson show though.
The 6ft2 striker reacted quickest to a Nick Pope error to fire Brighton into the lead inside half an hour. With a little over an hour on the clock, the No28 curled an effort into the bottom corner from 25 yards to really showcase his finishing ability. He then capped off a stunning showing with a left-footed effort that, rather fortuitously took a deflection en route to wrong-footing Pope.
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History maker
In the process, the six-cap Republic of Ireland international etched his name into the history books. He’s now only the fourth 18-year-old to score a hat-trick in the Premier League, joining an exclusive club made up of Michael Owen, Robbie Fowler and Chris Bart-Williams.
He is also just the second non-English player to reach double figures in the English top-flight while aged 18 or under. Last season he became the youngest player since Owen (17) to score and assist in the same match.
Ferguson’s return of 10 goals and two assists across two seasons is even more of an achievement when you consider he’s done this in just 1,152 minutes. The 18-year-old has averaged 0.78 goals per 90 over the past 12 months. If you extrapolate that over a 38-game campaign, that is close to a 30-goal season.
Obviously, the sample size needs to be larger before you read too much into the data, but the signs are more than encouraging. Even more so when you consider he’s turning out for a Brighton rather than, say, a Manchester City.
The numbers posted by the former Bohemians youngster all seem sustainable too. He’s racked up an Expected Goals average of 0.6 while averaging 3.81 shots per 90 over the last year in the English top-flight
The next Haaland?
It is little wonder that he’s being linked with a host of top Premier League clubs. He is liked by Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester United while Manchester City are the latest club to join the race to sign the Brighton No28.
The iPaper claim the powerhouse forward isn’t just viewed as a potential replacement for Erling Haaland, but he’s also been earmarked as a player to play alongside the Premier League record breaker. At least in the short term.
Brighton would want in excess of €100 million for Ferguson and having seen what happened with Moises Caicedo, you wouldn’t bet against them getting a British record free for the teen.
Few in world football can lay a glove on the City No9, but when looking at averages, Ferguson compares quite favourably. For example, Haaland’s non-penalty expected goal average on a per-90 basis falls short of the Brighton striker’s (0.73 to 0.78).
The Norwegian goal machine is also averaging fewer shots (3.75 to 3.81). He comes out on top when looking at goals per 90 (0.9 to 0.78) but he is five years Ferguson's senior so had more experience as a penalty box poacher. After all, finishing ability comes with repetition.
The ideal front two
So while Haaland comes out on top as a finisher right now, Ferguson’s overall game might actually trump the reigning Golden Boot winner. This isn’t necessarily the best way to judge a player’s link-up as it is more than likely tied to the role of the individual, but the Brighton youngster is averaging more passes per 90 and has a significantly higher success rate.
Ferguson attempts 21 passes per 90 and finds a teammate 82% of the time. He has really looked composed and settled dropping deep to be part of the build-up as part of the De Zerbi system. There are clear shades of Harry Kane in his game in that regard.
By comparison, Haaland averages just 15 attempted passes per 90 and completes just 70%. The former BVB forward is rarely involved in the build-up and instead just focuses on being a menace in the penalty area. On paper, at least, these two could form quite a potent pairing with a few tweaks.
There are similarities between the duo. Both have been scoring goals from a young age, but there’s enough of a difference to be able to justify both in the same XI without having to compromise.
