Toney or Osimhen? The surprise answer to Chelsea's No.9 curse
Sam McGuire
- Updated: 23 Nov 2023 19:38 GMT
- 12 min read
Chelsea look set to delve back into the transfer market this winter. The Blues have invested heavily under Todd Boehly since his May 2022 takeover, with two €110 million midfielders signed, and the magic money tree appears to be flourishing yet again.
Mauricio Pochettino wants to add a striker to his ranks. Chelsea have created a number of chances this season but have been unable to convert these opportunities on a reliable basis. The biggest culprit for these missed chances is Nicolas Jackson, the summer signing from Villarreal.
The 22-year-old has missed eight big chances, the fourth-most of any player in the Premier League with Erling Haaland (13) leading the way. For further context, Jackson has a shot conversion rate of just 6.45%.
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The Chelsea No.15 is clearly a talent but, right now, he’s raw. And the Blues need more of a reliable goal threat if they’re to challenge at the top of the table if not for the rest of this season, then next.
With this in mind, reports suggest the 2020/21 Champions League winners are eyeing up a big-name centre-forward in the January transfer window. It is a small shortlist made up of two players: Victor Osimhen and Ivan Toney.
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Osimhen or Toney?
There are similarities between the two but a number of differences to make it a good comparison.
Toney is currently suspended for breaching betting rules. The 27-year-old was one of the best strikers in the Premier League last season, scoring 20 goals for Brentford. The one-time Newcastle United forward made 33 starts for the Bees and racked up 2,951 minutes in the English top-flight last term.
He scored 14 non-penalty goals with a Non-Penalty Expected Goals total of 13.2, so his output was sustainable. He was a reliable goal threat and scorer. Toney wasn’t heavily reliant on volume, averaging just 2.65 shots per 90. For context, many goalscorers average over four shots per 90 and their output is tied to this. The Brentford No.17 doesn’t fall into this category and this is encouraging if you are looking for goals.
The one-cap England international had a shot accuracy of 38% last season and finished with a Non-Penalty Expected Goals per 90 average of 0.4. In a better team with more shots, the latter metric should spike.
Interestingly, Toney is a brutish centre-forward who is involved in over seven aerial duels on a per 90 basis and he was coming out on top in almost half. Physically, he can hold his own and this is a key for a Pochettino striker.
His current deal expires in 2025 and he recently joined Jonathan Barnett’s CAA Stellar Agency. The move suggests he’s looking to leave Brentford in the near future and given his contract situation, the window for the Bees to get a big fee is fairly small now. It isn’t now or never, but it is getting close to that sort of stage.
He knows the league and he knows where the goal is. That is two big ticks for him.
Now, a look at Osimhen.
The 24-year-old knows where the goal is but he doesn’t have Premier League experience. That is definitely something to factor into all of this when assessing the Serie A title winner.
Given Toney hasn’t played this season, it isn’t fair to use Osimhen’s 2023/24 numbers. Instead, we’ll focus on what the former Lille man did for Napoli last season. He scored 26 goals in 2,566 minutes (30 starts).
Osimhen scored 24 non-penalty goals and had a Non-Penalty Expected Goals total of 18.9. That is a big overperformance - perhaps of the unsustainable sort - but the Napoli No.9 is a clinical finisher who knows how to turn low-value efforts into high-value opportunities with his shot placement.
Osimhen vs Serie A forwards: 2022/23
He is fairly reliant on high volume though, averaging over 4.5 shots per 90 (4.63 to be exact). He was landing almost 40% of his attempts on target and had a Non-Penalty Expected Goals per 90 average of 0.66. He is more of a threat than Toney but he was averaging more shots while playing for the best side in the league, something to consider when comparing the two attackers.
The one-time Wolfsburg youngster competes in four aerial duels per 90 and won over 54%. His existing deal expires in 2025 and there have been issues between the club and player over recent weeks, so a move could be on the cards. He has been courted by a number of teams over recent months, including Arsenal, but few will be able to compete financially with a free-spending Chelsea side.
Both are viable options for the Blues but with so much potential in the current squad, a more reliable forward might be the best bet right now and that would be Toney.
