Watkins vs Toney: Why the winner is OBVIOUS and what it means for Aston Villa

Robin Bairner

• 29 Mar 2024 16:10 GMT
• 3 min read

Ollie Watkins might not have enjoyed the international break with England that he wanted, but the Aston Villa striker’s failure to impress with the Three Lions should be seen as a bonus for his club.

While transfer rumours continue to surround England teammate Ivan Toney, Watkins is being left somewhat in the shadows.

On a personal level, this isn’t fair on the 28-year-old. He is enjoying a remarkable season at Villa Park, having hit double figures in both goals and assists in the Premier League already this season.

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Toney, meanwhile, say out the first half of the season following a gambling ban. Although he exploded back onto the scene initially, he is five games without a goal for struggling Brentford and has won outsized credit for his first England strike, a penalty in a friendly against Belgium.

Comparisons between the pair have been readily made in recent weeks as both seem to be squabbling over one spot in Gareth Southgate’s Euro 2024 squad, but while the England manager seems to be having a hard time selecting which player is better, the data clearly shows Watkins is the superior option.

Watkins better than Toney - and it's not even close

Data analytics experts SciSports show that Watkins is significantly better based on its SciSkill scoring. This is based around hundreds of in-game data points, so it therefore links directly to performance.

This is particularly important for Villa for two reasons.

Firstly, it gives them a yardstick by which to judge any summer transfer bids for Watkins. These will surely come. Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are all financially powerful clubs seeking a centre-forward, with Toney variously linked to all three.

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Secondly, the Brentford striker could conceivably be a replacement for Watkins at Villa. Indeed, SciSports reports that the Birmingham club are the best option in the Premier League for Toney.

The similarities between the pair are clear, and if West Ham are thinking about chancing their luck to sign the England forward, Villa should also be logically interested in him as a replacement.

But if they were to move for Toney, who is out of contract in little over 12 months, the price should be significantly lower than the one they receive for Watkins, reflecting the difference in standard between the new.

In short, though, Villa should be doing all they can to keep Watkins.