Aston Villa can secure star’s heroic homecoming in bargain transfer that has no downside

Robin Bairner

• 15 Jun 2024 14:00 BST
• 9 min read

Aston Villa are seeking to strengthen all areas of their squad ahead of the summer transfer window as they prepare for a campaign in which they will play Champions League football for the first time.

One of the players they are reportedly studying is Roma striker Tammy Abraham, and while the competition is set to be fierce for the former Chelsea youth, the 26-year-old would offer a perfect alternative to Ollie Watkins at the forefront of the Villa forward line should the Blues snap up Jhon Duran.

Everton, Tottenham and West Ham are all in the running for the hitman, whose career has stalled of late due to a serious knee injury.

READ MORE: Premier League summer transfers 2024: All the Done Deals

Of these options, though, Villa represent the best for Abraham – and not simply because they can offer him Champions League football.

According to data analytics firm SciSports, Aston Villa enjoy a Club Fit score of 72 for the former Blue. It believes that he would get a good amount of playing time in Birmingham while Unai Emery’s side have a formation that suit him. Where it is more doubtful is in terms of playing style and potential development, though this latter figure might change when the Champions League is factored in.

Of his other suitors, West Ham otherwise rank the best with a Club Fit score of 69. Playing time would be plentiful with the London club, which would be their big selling point. Everton (64) and Tottenham (58) are considerably further back, with only Chelsea, ironically, being a worse fit.

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Compared

Jhon Durán

F (CRL)

Aston Villa

Jhon Durán

F (CRL)

Aston Villa

VS

Tammy Abraham

F (CRL)

Roma

Tammy Abraham

F (CRL)

Roma

2023/2024

Season Statistics

2022/2023

37	Appearances	55
8	Goals	9
0	Assists	8
25	Shots On Target	43
46	Shots Total	78
8	Key Passes	43

Abraham would offer an ideal alternative to Watkins in what will be an intense season ahead.

SciSports has demonstrated that there are similarities in playing style between the two. Both act primarily as poachers, and though Abraham had more of a tendency to drop deeper with Roma in the 2022/23 campaign, this was not a dominant aspect of his game.

The former Chelsea man, meanwhile, has been a success at Villa Park before. In the 2018/19 season, he spent a loan at the club from Stamford Bridge and offered a return of 27 goals in 40 Championship matches.

Abraham vs Watkins: Playing style

Abraham a bargain

So far, so good. What about price?

Even that looks good. Roma are liable to be forced into a sale, according to The Telegraph, which suggests that Abraham will be allowed to leave for €23.6 million (£20m).

The player’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV), which is calculated based on hundreds of in-game stats, is €30m. Villa would be getting a bargain.

With Duran, who is currently rated as an inferior player, liable to move to Chelsea for around €47m, they would find themselves in profit and with a stronger squad.

For Aston Villa, this is a move with no obvious downside, while a return to Birmingham would have clear advantages for Abraham, including the possibility of Champions League football.