Who will win Ballon d’Or 2025? Shortlist, favourites, latest odds, date and past winners

Cameron Smith

• Updated: 26 Sept 2024 15:33 BST
• 12 min read

The Ballon d’Or is by far the most prestigious individual award in world football and virtually every top player aspires to win it one day.

Real Madrid superstar Vinicius Junior is the reigning champion, having won the Ballon d'Or for the first time in his career in 2024.

The Brazil international fought off competition from Manchester City superstar Erling Haaland and Los Blancos team-mates Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe to claim the award.

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The Ballon d’Or began all the way back in 1956, with England’s Stanley Matthews the inaugural winner. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have dominated the award since 2008, but neither were nominated in 2024 and their era at the very top level is now over.

With his victory in 2024, Vinicius became just the third player other than Messi or Ronaldo to have won the Ballon d’Or since 2007 - with Luka Modric (2018) and Karim Benzema (2022) the only other players.

The Ballon d’Or is awarded to one player who is deemed to be the best in the world over the course of a single domestic season and the 2025 award is likely to be a hard-fought contest.

Here at FootballTransfers, we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know about the 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony, which is likely to be held in October 2025.

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What is the shortlist for the 2025 Ballon d’Or?

The 2025 Ballon d’Or shortlist has not been revealed yet. It is likely to be published in September 2025.

Who is the favourite to win the 2025 Ballon d’Or?

Erling Haaland, Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe are expected to feature prominently in the race to win the 2025 Ballon d’Or.

Barcelona wonderkid Lamine Yamal is also likely to be a serious contender, while Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala and Mohamed Salah may be candidates for the win too.

However, a clear favourite is yet to emerge.

What were the 2022 Ballon d'Or rule changes?

The Ballon d'Or underwent several big changes in 2022, with the most significant being the new schedule for the prize. While the Ballon d’Or was previously judged based on the calendar year (January to December), that has now been changed in accordance with the regular football season (August to July).

It means a player's entire season will be judged upon, rather than two half-seasons. As a result, the 2022 Qatar World Cup influenced the 2023 Ballon d'Or award, instead of the 2022 edition, due to it taking place in the winter.

The shortlisting process has also experienced a change. It was previously drafted by journalists working for France Football and L'Équipe, but that has now been altered.

Ballon d'Or ambassador Didier Drogba will now help to finalise the shortlists as well as the "most insightful voter" from the previous edition of the award. For the men's 2022 edition, Vietnamese journalist Truong Anh Ngoc, working for The Thao & Van Hoa, had a say in the shortlist while Czech journalist Karolina Hlavackova, working for Ruik, helped finalise the 2022 Women's shortlist.

There have also been changes to the voting system. While 127 jurors, one from each country, were part of the process to decide the winner in 2021, that has now changed.

Now, only the top 100 ranked countries in FIFA's coefficient will be able to have one representative conduct their vote. This has been to eliminate the weakest footballing countries to ensure a fair method of voting doesn’t include too many people.

France Football also cleared up the rules of how to award the victor. “The Ballon d'Or is an individual award. Also, logically, criterion number 1 will focus primarily on individual performance and the decisive and impressive character of the contenders.

“Since football remains a collective sport despite everything, criterion number 2 will focus on collective performance and the record accumulated during the season. Finally, criterion number 3 will concern the class of the player and his sense of fair play.

“Because setting an example also counts. The most attentive will have noticed the disappearance of the 'player's career' criterion. A way of considering the race for the Ballon d'Or as an open competition, and not as a preserve.”

It has placed focus primarily on a player's individual season, with trophies as part of a team not as important.

How is the Ballon d’Or decided and who votes?

The initial 30-man shortlist is compiled by the editors at France Football, the organisers of the event, as well as Drogba and one selected journalist. Once that list has been completed, a selection of international journalists - one representative from the top 100 nations - and national team coaches and captains come together to decide the winner.

They are each asked to choose their top five players from the 30 selected, and order them from first to fifth based on: individual and collective performances during the year, player class and an overall view of the player’s career.

The player who is selected as the winner by each voter is awarded six points, second-place is given four points, down to one point for fifth place.

The total points for each player from every journalist, coach and captain are then added together to decide third, second and first place.

When does the 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony take place?

The 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony is expected to be held in October 2025.

Where will the 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony be held?

The Theatre du Chatelet in Paris is expected to host the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony. The venue also hosted the ceremonies in 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024.

As a result, it appears that the Ballon d’Or has found its home.

Who will present the 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony?

It’s customary for major football award nights to feature a famous ex-professional player to help host the event. The Ballon d’Or is no different, and Chelsea legend Didier Drogba hosted the 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 Ballon d’Or ceremonies alongside French journalist Sandy Heribert.

The pair are expected to host the ceremony again.

Why was the 2020 Ballon d’Or cancelled?

The 2020 Ballon d’Or was controversially cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic. The pause in world football in March 2020 caused uncertainty over whether games would be played and if the season would be finished.

Indeed, both Ligue 1 and the Eredivisie ended their seasons early due to the pandemic, while international competitions like Euro 2020 were postponed.

The Ballon d’Or was cancelled on 20 July 2020, with France Football revealing the reason it would not be held was due to the “lack of a sufficiently level playing field” caused by the virus.

They added: "We did not want to put an indelible asterisk on the prize list as ‘a trophy won in exceptional circumstances due to the health crisis of Covid-19’.

"Protecting the credibility and legitimacy of such a prize also means guaranteeing its irreproachability over time."

Robert Lewandowski was the favourite for the award had it not been cancelled.

The Pole was widely considered the deserving winner of the award and there has been a campaign in the footballing world to award him what is perceived to be a deserved accomplishment.

Between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, Lewandowski had an absurd 101 goals and 18 assists in 85 club games, helping Bayern to the Champions League title in 2020 and also winning the FIFA Best Men’s Player award.

Upon receiving the 2021 Ballon d’Or, Messi acknowledged that Lewandowski should have the 2020 award in his trophy cabinet.

"Robert, you deserve your Ballon d’Or. Last year, everyone was in agreement to say that you were the big winner of this award," the Argentine said.

Who has won the most Ballon d’Or trophies?

Lionel Messi has won the most Ballon d’Or trophies in football history. The former Barcelona forward has come out on top eight times.

The Argentina star won the first of his seven trophies in 2009. Further triumphs followed in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2021, before his most recent victory in 2023.

Cristiano Ronaldo is next in the standings with five wins, while Michel Platini, Johan Cruyff and Marco van Basten have each won the Ballon d'Or three times.

How many Ballon d’Or trophies has Lionel Messi won?

Eight. As well as his record number of victories, Messi has finished in second place for the Ballon d’Or five times and in third position once, giving him 13 appearances in the top three.

He won both the 2021 and 2023 awards, but he wasn’t even included in the 30-man shortlist in 2022 after his first season at Paris Saint-Germain.

How many Ballon d’Or trophies has Cristiano Ronaldo won?

Ronaldo has won the Ballon d’Or five times in his illustrious career. He claimed his first in 2008, with further successes coming in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017.

The Portugal star has also recorded six second-place finishes as well as coming third once. He finished sixth in 2021, but came a lowly 20th place in 2022 - his lowest position since 2005.

What is the Kopa Trophy?

The Kopa Trophy is an award that recognises the best-performing player under the age of 21, and was first introduced in 2018. The award is voted for by former Ballon d'Or winners.

The award is named after Raymond Kopa, a French footballing legend that won three European Cup titles with Real Madrid and won the Ballon d'Or in 1958.

Just like the Ballon d'Or, the Kopa Trophy was cancelled in 2020 so it has only been given out four times, with a different winner on each occasion.

Kylian Mbappe won the inaugural award after helping France to win the World Cup in 2018, before Matthijs de Ligt claimed the prize in 2019 on the back of Ajax's outstanding Champions League campaign.

Pedri was successful in 2021 after a stellar year for Barcelona and Spain. His team-mate Gavi won the award in 2022 after a stunning first season at Barcelona in 2021-22 that also saw him break into the Spain squad.

The reigning holder of the Kopa Trophy is England superstar Jude Bellingham after his win in 2023.

The 2025 Kopa Trophy shortlist

The shortlist for the 2025 Kopa Trophy has not been announced yet.

What is the Yashin Trophy?

The Yashin Trophy is awarded to the world's best goalkeeper each year, and is aptly named after Russian Lev Yashin, who is considered by many to have been the best goalkeeper of all time.

Just like the Kopa Trophy, former Ballon d'Or winners cast a vote to decide the winner, and the first award was won by Liverpool's Alisson in 2019.

Gianluigi Donnarumma was rewarded for a remarkable Euro 2020 campaign by winning the 2021 Yashin Trophy, while Thibaut Courtois' Champions League heroics ensured he won the 2022 award.

Emiliano Martinez won the 2023 Yashin Trophy after his inspired performances at the 2022 World Cup played a crucial role in Argentina being crowned world champions.

The 2025 Yashin Trophy shortlist

The shortlist for the 2025 Yashin Trophy has not been announced yet.

What is the Women’s Ballon d’Or?

Alongside the men’s award, there is also a women’s Ballon d’Or that was introduced in 2018.

Like the men’s award, journalists from around the world vote for who has been the best player in the world during the calendar year. Lyon striker Ada Hegerberg won the inaugural women’s Ballon d’Or in 2018 and Megan Rapinoe lifted the prize in 2019.

The women’s ceremony was also cancelled in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Barcelona and Spain midfielder Alexia Putellas won both the 2021 and 2022 awards.

Aitana Bonmati won in 2023 after leading Spain to World Cup glory and dominating European football with Barcelona - the Women’s Club of the Year.

The 2025 Women's Ballon d'Or shortlist

The shortlist for the 2025 Women’s Ballon d’Or has not been announced yet.

What was the FIFA Ballon d’Or?

The Ballon d’Or has been its own award since 1956, but between 2010 and 2015, it merged with FIFA’s ‘World Player of the Year’ award to form the FIFA Ballon d’Or.

The FIFA World Player of the Year had been an award between 1991 and 2009, with both Ronaldo Nazario and Zinedine Zidane winning it three times, before it joined with the Ballon d’Or in 2010.

Messi won the first-ever joint award, and he retained it in 2011 and 2012 before Cristiano Ronaldo won successive awards in 2013 and 2014. Messi then won the final iteration of the award in 2015.

For 2016, FIFA and France Football parted ways, with the Ballon d’Or back to being its own independent award. FIFA, meanwhile, resurrected its previous award under a new name: The Best FIFA Men’s Player, which Messi won in 2023.