Why Neymar might be football’s record transfer - forever

Paul Macdonald

Updated: 2 Sept 2024 15:01 BST
5 min read

The Premier League clubs recently announced the intention to introduce a spending cap which, if ratified, will look to bring in spending limits attached to transfers, wages, and agent fees.

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The expected number is likely to be correlated with the smallest level of broadcast revenue distributed to any team in the league, which will be in the region of £100m. An as-yet undefined multiple will be assigned to this, but it is rumoured to be 5x, which would represent a spending limit of £500m per season.

It’s not in place yet, and, indeed, nor is any indication as to what the punishment would be for breaching this limit, but it is somewhat a step in the direction of curbing transfer fees at the very highest level of the game.

And the fact is that it’s often overblown how many HUGE transfer fees there actually are. There have only been 13 transfers ever that exceeded €100m and, as the tweet below shows, only 17 teams have spent more than €50m on a player in their history.

There are only 17 teams that have ever paid more than £50m for a player. Many of those are out of that market for the foreseeable future. Most players with £50m+ price tags are simply not going to move this Summer. pic.twitter.com/JaZQdyx6sD
— slbsn (@slbsn) April 27, 2024

And from that list, there are many that are no longer in a financial position to do it again; Barcelona’s financial predicament is now a practical joke. Atletico are over €1Bn in debt. Juventus and Napoli are feeling the effects of no Champions League football, last season and this respectively. Manchester United are in the same situation. Chelsea’s mass blowout means they are in a financial hole for years to come, while Liverpool and Spurs have only done it eight times, total - and two of those were Tanguy NDombele and Naby Keita.

And then there’s Uefa’s Financial Fair Play model, which will require teams to spend no more than 70% of their revenue on squad spend. Teams are scared of sanctions - exactly what they were brought in to do, albeit, in the case of Manchester and Paris Saint-Germain, far too late.

But what this all means is that Neymar’s €222m transfer to PSG from Barcelona in 2017 stands out more than ever before. Only one other transfer, Kylian Mbappe, came within €80 MILLION of this amount in history - Phillippe Coutinho to Barcelona. Both came in 2018 and one was a direct result of the other. Only one other transfer since - Joao Felix’s €126m move to Atletico Madrid - has come within €100m of the Neymar deal.

With each passing year it is more staggering just how incredible that deal was. It was Qatar’s true statement of intent at a time when it was possible to do it, and when Uefa’s FFP was flawed and lacked proper conviction.

In short, it’ll be hugely difficult to replicate the circumstances of that transfer ever again. Firstly, football is becoming less individualistic and more tactical and team-focused. There is no Messi or Ronaldo at the current moment, and the closest, Mbappe, knows his worth so well he’ll leave PSG for free.

© IMAGO - The days of Mbappe and Neymar fees are over

Secondly, the value of the Neymar fee is simply so astronomical that it would take an incredibly special player, in a perfect moment, to get even within €50m of such a deal. The teams that may on occasion spend €100m on a player; it’s very much possible that there’s a Declan Rice or a Jack Grealish once a summer.

But, and it’s hard to overstress this, that fee is still 60% behind Neymar’s deal. The idea of a team spending more than double that, in this market environment, just seems unlikely.

Broadcast revenues are static, even in the Premier League. Commercialisation is reaching a peak across Europe, while matchday revenues will only ever increase by modest amounts. It could be said that revenue generation in football may have peaked.

And, of course, there’s Saudi Arabia. There’s no knowing what such an irresponsible administration will do to keep themselves amused, but even by their standard there’s no player remotely close to €220m worth paying for, certainly not Mo Salah, who seemingly has no interest in going anyway. And in any event, the money they are offering will be to entice the players to come to their sub-standard league, rather than in transfer fees.

Inflation means everything will go up eventually, and one day, far into the future, we might see a bigger fee. But as of right now, the transfer market is not in a place where Neymar will be beaten, any time soon.