Premier League title race is already down to two teams

Robin Bairner

• 8 Nov 2024 12:30 GMT
• 3 min read

The Premier League will be won by one of just two teams, according to Opta, who believe that even at this early stage of the season, the destination of the crown is a toss-up between a pair of clubs.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool lead the way through 10 matches of the campaign, dropping points in just two of their games to collect 25 points already.

The Anfield club are a couple of marks better off than Pep Guardiola’s injury-hit Manchester City, who were surprisingly beaten by Bournemouth to lose an undefeated Premier League record that stretched nearly a year.

Opta believes there is a 95.6% of one of these two clubs winning the league.

Despite sitting second currently, City have the edge at 49.28%, with Liverpool having a 46.32% chance of lifting the title in Slot’s debut season.

There had been hope of a classic race for the title thanks to Arsenal’s recent strong performances, the resurgence of Chelsea and the dramatic improvement of Aston Villa under Unai Emery, yet all three clubs have been virtually dismissed as serious challengers by computer boffins.

The Gunners’ recent form has seen their title chances slide to just 3.99%, suggesting they will need a stellar run of results if they are to upset either City or Pool. Indeed, they are expected to finish more than 10 points off the pace of Guardiola’s side.

There is better news in terms of their Champions League hopes, with Mikel Arteta’s side given a 88.98% chance of finishing in the top four.

Chelsea, meanwhile, are heading back into Europe’s elite competition next season if they maintain their early season momentum under Enzo Maresca, Opta reports. The Blues have a 53.12% chance of finishing top four, but even though they have started promisingly under the Italian, they have just a 0.3% possibility to win the league.

Outside of these clubs, no team has a better than 0.1% chance of lifting the title, with Ruben Amorim told he has a 0% chance of leading the Red Devils to the crown and just a 1.65% probability of reaching the Champions League.