Why Arsenal and Man Utd should AVOID signing Gyokeres or Osimhen in January

Cameron Smith

• Updated: 6 Jan 2025 10:56 GMT
• 4 min read

Arsenal and Manchester United have both been heavily linked with a number of centre forwards as they look to sign reinforcements during the January transfer window.

Gabriel Jesus has enjoyed a productive festive period, while Kai Havertz remains a fairly reliable goalscorer, but Mikel Arteta is reportedly looking to bolster his attacking roster amid interest in the likes of Alexander Isak, Mateo Retegui, Benjamin Sesko and Viktor Gyokeres.

Man Utd, on the other hand, appear in desperate need of a new number nine following the recent struggles of Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee.

READ MORE: Chelsea and Man Utd receive NEW Victor Osimhen transfer message

The pair have notched a combined five Premier League goals so far this season, and Ruben Amorim is determined to purchase a more consistent goalscorer as he looks to spark Man Utd into life during the second-half of the season.

Victor Osimhen and the aforementioned Gyokeres have both been heavily linked with a mid-season move to Old Trafford, however both Arsenal and Man Utd may be wise to wait until the summer window before signing a new centre forward.

READ MORE: Arsenal see surprise bid REJECTED as Arteta seeks first January transfer

Why Arsenal and Man Utd should avoid signing a new striker in January

Research from Aurel Nazmiu, a Senior Data Scientist, suggests that signing a number nine during the January transfer window is almost always a poor decision.

38% of strikers signed in January across Europe’s top five leagues between 2015 and 2024 scored zero goals during the second-half of the campaign, while a further 38% scored between one and three times.

In addition, only 15% of strikers managed to notch five or more goals before the end of their first half-season.

Of course, those figures include players signed at the bottom end of each division, but Nazmiu also points out that “prices paid in January are typically 17% higher than expected in an efficient market.”

As a result, clubs are generally forced to pay higher fees in January, yet they receive worse results.

Man Utd have only signed two out-and-out strikers during the January window since 2008 and both have largely underwhelmed. Odion Ighalo impressed in the FA Cup and Europa League, but he mustered zero goals in 11 Premier League appearances and failed to justify his €12m loan fee.

Meanwhile, Wout Weghorst, who joined on loan in 2022, failed to score in 17 Premier League games for the Red Devils and only amassed two goals in 31 matches in all competitions.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have enjoyed more joy when shopping for strikers in January.

They notably signed Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Borussia Dortmund in 2018, while Thierry Henry successfully returned to the club on loan in 2012.

However, the stats suggest that signing a striker in January is unlikely to result in a significant upturn in form and given the increased price it would cost to sign Gyokeres, Osimhen or any other top forward this month, Arsenal and Man Utd may be wise to wait until the summer.