Messi's underlying numbers should be a worry for PSG
Paul Macdonald
- Updated: 1 Nov 2021 05:24 CDT
- 4 min read
Lionel Messi's going through one of the poorest spells of his career as he attempts to adjust to life with Paris Saint-Germain, and some are comparing his form to the difficult run he had at the beginning of 2020/21.
Messi didn't score a goal from open play last season until 7 November in a home defeat of Real Betis. Prior to that he played nine matches in La Liga and the Champions League, scoring penalties against Villarreal, Dynamo Kiev and Juventus.
In the first 18 games of the season taking us to the end of 2020, he scored 10 goals including penalties and provided three assists; by Messi's standards, a below-average return.
But even throughout that period, and in a poor Barcelona side, the Argentine was still master of his domain and the underlying numbers comprehensively reflect this.
He produced 13 xA (Expected Assists) and 16 xG (Expected Goals) in that period, as well as 25 accurate Key Passes, easily the best in Spain. He ran into some stunning goalkeeping performers, from Thibaut Courtois' brilliant one-on-one save in the Clasico, to a rookie Dynamo Kiev teenager producing a stunning display to keep the score down.
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We, collectively, were worried about Messi's reduced output and wondered if it was the beginning of the end. But in the second half of the season he converted those expected numbers into actuals and all was right again.
The team simply wasn't good enough to compete (though they did win the Copa del Rey) but Messi scored 28 goals and provided eight assists in 28 matches, one of the all-time great late season runs.
His xA for that period was a totally improbably 24, meaning he should have had three times as many assists as his team-mates were actually able to convert. When combining the numbers, Messi collected 38 goals and 11 assists in 46 games. His expected statistics were 37 expected goals and 37 expected assists. These numbers are just not normal, at all.
In fact, these numbers combined are comfortably Messi's best ever expected return at Barcelona. At the turn of the decade, he was a hard-nosed goalscorer, smashing records and keeping all the chances for himself.
Midway through the decade he was surrounded by unbelievable creative talent such as Andres Iniesta in his late-period brilliance, Neymar and Luis Suarez.
But in his late Barca days he was the finisher and the creator, such was the problems within the side and, as it turns out, he was the best in the world in both of these elements. As such his xG and xA combined numbers P90 were his best since the data was first properly gathered by InStat in 2012/13.
Messi: Expected Stats at PSG
And therefore there should be a little concern about Messi's underlying numbers. Even when poor at Barca he was always involved and looking like he could score, or assist. While his numbers at PSG are a small sample size and he's obviously adjusting to a new team, he is well down on last season, particularly in the assist department.
He is yet to provide one in France and his expected total is only 1.5. Yes, it's only been eight matches, one of which he was subbed on and in another he was subbed off - something that didn't happen often at Barcelona. His xG is better - 4.5 across those encounters of which he has three goals. And the fact those have come in the Champions League suggests he's doing what he was brought in to do - get success in Europe.
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But it just doesn't seem right. He feels detached from the team and drifts out of matches for long spells. It's hard to think that he wishes he was somewhere else.
The current mess at Barcelona might convince him that there's nothing for him at Camp Nou. But Messi at the moment feels like a part of him has gone since leaving Spain. Will he ever get it back?
