Should Chelsea re-sign Abraham to replace Lukaku?

Cameron Smith

5 Feb 2022 09:06 CST
5 min read

Chelsea have searched long and wide for the ideal number nine since Didier Drogba's departure.

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The Ivorian striker briefly returned for the 2014/15 season, but after his Champions League-winning performance in 2012, the Blues have been desperate to find a replacement.

Samuel Eto'o was a good stopgap, while Diego Costa seemed the perfect blend of pace, power and precision during his time at the club. However, since Costa's exit in 2018, Chelsea have signed Alvaro Morata, Olivier Giroud, Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, although he is primarily a No.10, and Romelu Lukaku on permanent deals, while Michy Batshuayi was signed the summer before Costa left and was seen as his replacement.

That totals to a huge £330 million (€396m), and those transfer fees don't even paint the whole picture.

Werner, for example, cost £48m in terms of a price tag, but agent fees and wages take that overall cost up to around £102.5m over the course of his five-year deal, of which he is 18 months into.

So, Chelsea have placed a whole heap of focus on the forward line since July 2017. The result? 128 goals in a combined 433 games from the aforementioned players in that time, which equates to £2.6m per goal. Not exactly great reading.

Now, during this time of struggle, Chelsea have had another option available to them - an academy graduate capable of playing at the highest level. Tammy Abraham proved himself on loan moves to Bristol City and Aston Villa, among others, and under Frank Lampard he was given a chance.

The English striker scored 15 Premier League goals, and three in the Champions League, in his debut season as a regular at Chelsea, and despite being dropped by Thomas Tuchel, he still ended the 2020/21 season at the Blues' joint-second top goal-scorer in the league, along with Mason Mount and the aforementioned Werner, on six goals.

While Werner achieved that feat in over 2,600 league minutes, Abraham notched up his tally with less than 1,100 minutes under his belt, despite the fact the German international was signed to be an upgrade on the Cobham academy graduate. Yet, Abraham was moved on in the summer, with Jose Mourinho's Roma the destination.

He was sold for £34m (€40m), but Chelsea crucially have a £68m (€80m) release clause that becomes active in 2023. Should they take advantage of that?

Abraham's form At Roma

While some critics pointed out Abraham's lack of goals against big sides in England, the forward has truly rectified that reputation in Italy.

There’s a buy back clause into Abraham contract but it’s not gonna be valid this summer - I’m not even worried, we’re happy with Tammy and he’s doing great.

- Tiago Pinto, AS Roma director

He's scored against Milan, Juventus, and twice against Atalanta, three of the top five in Serie A. All of those goals have come since the beginning of December, which shows Abraham is beginning to settle in Rome.

His poacher instincts, the ones that served him so well under Lampard at Chelsea, have unsurprisingly transferred over to Italian football, and he's found the back of the net 17 times in all competitions, as well as contributing three assists.

The Englishman's underlying numbers have also bounced back to the rate they were at in Lampard's first season at Chelsea. While his shots per 90 dipped to 1.5 last season, in comparison to 2.6 the year before, they've rebounded to nearly 3.0 this term. His non penalty xG per 90 tally of 0.61 also ranks in the 97th percentile for forwards in Europe's top five leagues. Abraham is performing at a truly elite level, and he's doing it consistently.

His goal-scoring exploits on the continent have also earned him a recall to the England squad, a positive sign ahead of the 2022 World Cup.

Chelsea's Current Options

In perhaps direct contrast to Abraham's form, it's been the same old story at Chelsea - forwards underwhelming. Kai Havertz and Timo Werner haven't had the second season bounce the club had hoped for, while Romelu Lukaku has netted eight goals in 25 games so far this campaign; a far-cry away from the 30 strikes in 44 games he managed last year.

Chelsea have placed so much emphasis, time, focus, and money on their forward line, but that department of the pitch simply isn't performing. The fact Chelsea's defenders have netted so many goals this season is great, but the issue of goal-scoring strikers needs to change.

Abraham may not be the perfect answer, but he's exactly who Chelsea would be targeting as a new signing if he hadn't just left the club.

Is it a realistic option for Chelsea?

In reality, it is. The club wouldn't have included a buy-back option for 2023 if they weren't at least considering bringing Abraham home.

However, given the outlay on Lukaku, as well as the prospect Armando Broja and the fact Tuchel didn't favour Abraham last season, the actual events could go entirely differently.

Chelsea would be wise to scout out a new forward, Lukaku is approaching 30 after all, but Broja could well be the man they turn to. If that is the case, then it could become a situation of right player, wrong time for Abraham at Chelsea, even though he is far outperforming the Blues attackers this season.

AS Roma director Tiago Pinto has stated: “There’s a buy back clause into Abraham contract but it’s not gonna be valid this summer - I’m not even worried, we’re happy with Tammy and he’s doing great," so the Italian giants don't seem to be troubled by a potential exit for their star striker.

For the time being, it looks as though another mistake in the forward department for Chelsea in the transfer market.