Paulo Dybala: Who does he think he is?

Paul Macdonald

• Updated: 23 May 2023 08:46 CDT
• 5 min read

In the grand scheme of things, Paulo Dybala is irrelevant.

The Argentine is a player packed with individual talent. He can dribble, has an eye for a pass, and his technique particularly in long-range shooting is to be admired.

It’s all meaningless, however, when you take into account all of his other attributes - or lack of them.

Dybala is an anachronism, a throwback, an indulgence that cannot be carried in modern teams - even if he ever bothered to remain fit.

But he can’t even manage that, which means it’s all the more baffling that his agent continues to play games amid the pretence that Premier League clubs are interested. He's been linked with Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham... anyone.

He demanded €10 million net from Juventus and subsequently he appears to have lowered these demands to ‘just’ €7m. But only Inter seem willing to bite and if he were to go there on reduced terms considering his crocodile tears upon leaving Juve, it will be the perfect denouement to a career that always appeared to be on the brink of something but never really got there.

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Injuries haven’t helped him, but he must also know that injuries are playing an increasing factor in the profiles being drawn up by prospective clubs. Time spent out is a sunk cost, one that doesn’t necessarily need to be realised and so players who have proven track records of being unavailable are not a factor in the top end of the market - Dybala is realising this first hand.

This season alone he has had six different injury breaks for various issues, usually muscular. He missed 16 games as a result, and that doesn’t include those where he was subbed early while recovering or was a sub from the beginning (he featured in just 255 Champions League minutes - not good enough for an ‘elite’ player).

In 2020/21 he missed over three months with a ligament injury, while lingering coronavirus problems plagued the return of football in 19/20. Going back further there’s hamstring, groin… there’s always something. In 21/22 he played 2055 Serie A minutes - just over 60%. In 20/21, just 1136 (33%). In fact just once in his time at Juventus - in his first season in 15/16 did he manage to feature in over 70% of available league minutes. That record is far, far worse in the time since.

He’s 28 now - 29 before the World Cup starts in November. Accumulated body strain does not get better over time. On a purely physical level, he isn’t worth the risk. In fact, it says much about Manchester United’s transfer policy that they tracked him for some time, and it’s perhaps fortune rather than strategy that they didn’t land him.

And his numbers in terms of what he’s able to bring to the team, for a player with that profile, need to be knockout in order to persuade a team, any team, to pay that kind of annual salary. But in reality Dybala’s numbers are average at best in a league multitudes below the current quality of the Premier League.

His expected assists is just 3.8 - 48th best in Serie A. Key passes - 38, putting him 44th best. Progressive passes, 99th, which positions him 61st. So his ability to create chances for team-mates is decidedly average.

And what about his own offensive characteristics? Well his shots on target P90 is 1.62, 4th best in the division, but his goals per shot is 0.09, in 101st place. His average distance from goal when shooting is 21.9 metres, and yet his overall expected goals, despite all these shots on goal, is a measly 6.6. As a result his non-penalty expected goals per shot is just 0.07, or 143rd in Italy.

So here we’ve created the profile of a player who shoots a lot, perhaps at the expense of better positioned team-mates, from inopportune positions, and has the relative strike rate to reflect it. Put simply, Dybala does not profile as a player anyone should want to give €10m a year to.

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Dybala’s idealist position as a drifting No. 10 is a position few teams can afford to accommodate in the high pressing modern game. He ranks in the bottom half of Serie A for pressures and even lower among forwards in the final third. It’s just not him. There’s hardly any players not called Lionel Messi who can get away with it - not least in England.

So Dybala and his agent are fishing at the wrong time in the wrong era. There’s nothing about Dybala’s profile which suggests a gigantic contract offer should come his way - he needs to be aware of the player he is, versus the player he clearly thinks he is.