Why Trent Alexander-Arnold's resurgence spells DOOM for Thiago

Sam McGuire

• Updated: 23 May 2023 09:09 CDT
• 4 min read

Trent Alexander-Arnold was back to his brilliant best for Liverpool against Newcastle United.

The right-back claimed an assist and created a further three chances as the Reds ran out 2-0 winners in what was one of the strangest matches of the Premier League season. The hosts started well with Alisson thwarting Miguel Almiron early on before conceding twice and losing their goalkeeper inside of the opening 22 minutes. Even after going a man down, Newcastle troubled the Reds, who were quite clearly coasting, but failed to make the most of their opportunities on the night.

EXCLUSIVE: Liverpool target Red Bull Salzburg sensation Luka Sucic

Alexander-Arnold put on this creative masterclass, in which he racked up an Expected Assists total of 0.29, just days after a dominant defensive display in the Merseyside derby. Against Everton, the Liverpool No.66 won four of the five tackles he attempted, he recovered the ball on five occasions and won 100% of his aerial duels and close to 70% of his ground duels.

His performances against Everton and Newcastle are perhaps his best two back-to-back of the season for the Reds. Granted, the sample size isn’t the largest but it is interesting that this coincides with Thiago not being part of the starting XI.

EXCLUSIVE: Liverpool could sign Bellingham AND Mount this summer

Thiago a Klopp favourite

The Spanish playmaker has been one of the constants in this Liverpool team this season and he was the only one to survive the midfield shake-up following the run of torrid results. Both Fabinho and Jordan Henderson dropped to the bench while the one-time Bayern Munich man retained his place in the team partnering Naby Keita and Stefan Bajcetic in the middle third.

He is undoubtedly brilliant at what he does but given he is a controller, the play has to go through him. In fact, roughly 14% of the team’s passes are via the foot of their No.6. If he’s seeing more of the ball, others are seeing less of it.

Bajcetic has filled in for the injured 31-year-old in the wins over the Toffees and the Magpies and he is a different type of midfielder. He was responsible for 6% of Liverpool’s passes in the derby and just 4% of them on Saturday night.

So whereas Thiago’s arrival meant others didn’t have as much of the ball, Bajcetic’s inclusion in the starting XI on the left of the three means others get more of it.

The Reds have almost gone back to basics in their two most recent matches with the midfield acting as facilitators and the full-backs being the main source of creativity. This was very much their style during the 2018/19 campaign.

In the loss to Wolves, the last match Thiago started, the full-backs attempted a combined 106 passes. Against Everton, Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson were responsible for 139 passes while this figure rose to 163 against Newcastle. No doubt the circumstances against the Magpies skewed these numbers, with the hosts playing almost 70 minutes with 10 men. However, this is something to keep an eye on during Thiago’s absence.

Alexander-Arnold looking like his old self when Thiago isn’t in the team is a problem for Jurgen Klopp. In the two most recent matches, the right-back has averaged 79 passes. His season average is 65 in the Premier League. The sample size isn’t large enough to draw any confident conclusions just yet but a jump of 14 passes per 90 is quite significant. As is the spike in his xA average. Against Everton and Newcastle, his average was 0.45, up from his season average of 0.24.

As previously mentioned, it is too early to be using this data to declare Alexander-Arnold is better when Thiago isn’t in the team but given the way the Reds are operating right now, with a false nine and two inverted wide forwards, going back to the old ways isn’t necessarily a bad idea.

An argument could be made that this is only happening because of Thiago’s injury, that the Reds have had to tweak their style following the loss of their metronome. The consequence of this, though, is that a lot of players appear to be performing at a higher level. If it continues, Klopp has a bit of a conundrum on his hands.