Get real, Saudi! Liverpool legend Salah worth TWO Neymars
Sam McGuire
- Updated: 30 Aug 2023 07:37 CDT
- 5 min read
It feels like a matter of when and not if Mohamed Salah will leave Liverpool now. The three-time Premier League Golden Boot winner put pen to paper on a three-year deal with the Reds last summer and there had been a feeling that, if all went well, he could well extend again to see out his career at Anfield.
The likelihood of that has decreased dramatically over recent months with the rise of the Saudi Pro League. The money being pumped into those clubs is making it a desirable destination for a number of players and they’ve already managed to pull off some significant coups this summer, including several former Liverpool players.
Sadio Mane, Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, Roberto Firmino, N’Golo Kante and many, many more are now plying their trade there. Al-Hilal even had a bid accepted for Kylian Mbappe, though the player turned down the move and the club instead signed his teammate, Neymar.
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Al-Ittihad are reportedly obsessed with bringing Salah to the league. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side is the club making the most effort to lure the Liverpool No.11 away from Anfield. According to a number of outlets, a €150 million bid is being readied for the 31-year-old, though the Reds are adamant he will remain at the club this season.
More details on the proposal have been revealed and it is easy to understand exactly why the 2019/20 Premier League champions aren’t entertaining the offer. It is claimed that Al-Ittihad are willing to pay €100m up front with the remaining €50m tied to add-ons.
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Now, for a bit of context here, Al-Hilal paid a reported €90m for Neymar. Paris Saint-Germain were eager to part ways with the Samba star too with manager Luis Enrique claiming he was surplus to requirements, yet the Ligue 1 champions managed to receive a Saudi Pro League record fee for the Brazil international.
So why would Liverpool part ways with an integral part of their attack for just €10m more? Both are the same age but Salah has a much better injury record and he’s still at the very top of his game. Neymar hasn’t scored over 15 league goals since 2015/16 while the last time Salah failed to score at least 15 league goals was during his loan stint with Roma in 2015/16, when he found the back of the net on 14 occasions.
What's a fair price for Salah?
On paper, a €100m fee sounds fair for a 31-year-old. He has a top-end Expected Transfer Valuation (ETV) of €85.2m on the Football Transfers website and that takes a lot of things into account.
But there are a number of things that simply cannot be quantified and yet they will impact his valuation. For starters, Salah is perhaps the only guarantee in the Liverpool attack.
Diogo Jota has proven himself to be a goalscorer but his injury record makes it tricky to rely heavily on him. Luis Diaz is a bit of an unknown having missed the majority of the 2022/23 campaign. He’s started this season well but there are still question marks over whether he can replicate Sadio Mane’s output. Cody Gakpo proved himself to be an effective false nine last term but, like Diaz, he’s an unknown right now in terms of what he can be.
Darwin Nunez is erratic in front of goal. In his past three seasons, he’s underperformed his Expected Goals haul on two occasions while massively outperforming it once. You don’t know what you’re going to get from him and Jurgen Klopp is yet to really prove he knows how to get the best out of him.
By comparison, in Salah’s six full campaigns with the club, his lowest goal return in the Premier League is 19. He’s also averaging 10 assists per season. Simply put, he’s been a 30-goal involvement player for six successive years.
At some point, he is going to slow down but he’s still only 31. The likes of Robert Lewandowski, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have all managed to maintain high-performance levels well into their mid-30s. Given how Salah looks after himself, why should he be any different? He also has three goal involvements in three games this season and no player in the Premier League has registered more assists this term (2).
He’s the focal point of this Liverpool attack and the plan was for him to be the main man for at least another two seasons. The forward line has been built around having him involved. And that adds a premium to any fee.
No matter what, he manages to deliver. The Reds have had injury issues during seasons, changed systems, looked to bed in new attackers and the only constant has been Salah. To remove that constant, a club will have to pay over the odds.
If Al-Ittihad are serious about him, the base bid for Salah needs to be closer to €150m.
