The next EPL manager to leave betting odds: Erik Ten Hag faces pressure

FT Desk

• 23 Sep 2023 06:00 CDT
• 4 min read

The Premier League's managerial sack race is truly heating up as the sixth match week is closing in. Let's delve into the current state of affairs and see who the bookmakers have pegged as the next potential exit from the managerial hot seat.

According to bookmakers, the first name under the sack race spotlight is Sheffield United manager Paul Heckingbottom, who is the number one favourite to leave his post next in the Premier League. After five matches, The Blades have racked up just one point with only five scored goals, all of which has been enough to raise major question marks about Heckingbottom's future in the club.

Especially the last match week's late defeat against Tottenham Hotspur slashed Heckingbottom's odds in the sack race, as the Spurs scored two stoppage-time goals to claim a dramatic. After this, The Daily Mail reported Sheffield United's interest in bringing back a former manager, Chris Wilder, which eventually shortened his exit odds all the way down to 6/5.

To make things worse for Heckingbottom, Sheffield United is facing two tough next fixtures, as first, Newcastle comes for a visit to Bramall Lane, and right after that, the Blades face the high-flying West Ham away. A good result here might be enough for Heckingbottom to keep his job, but it is quite apparent that his immediate future hinges on the outcomes of these next two matches.

However, even though Heckingbottom is somewhat of a clear favourite in this unwanted race, few other managers are in consideration, as the Blades are not for sure the only club struggling currently.

Who is next on the line?

Looking at the EPL sack race betting odds, the previous front-runner, Sean Dyche, is following Heckingbottom at 4/1. With previous odds ranging from 15/8 to 2/1, the Everton boss was topping the list earlier as The Toffees started the season with three straight losses without scoring a single goal. After the trio of defeats, Dyche's side reached a 2-2 draw against Sheffield United, only to rack another goalless loss against Arsenal right after.

So, even though Heckingbottom has taken the lead in the sack race odds, with a five-match winless streak with only two scored goals, things aren't indeed looking great for the Toffees manager. However, in contrast to Heckingbottom's situation, Dyche faces a way easier set of fixtures with Brentford, Luton, and Bournemouth, so he'll have a better chance to really turn the tables regarding Everton's campaign this season.

In addition to two favorites, there's a new name in the mix, as Manchester United's Erik Ten Hag has faced some major pressure after two straight defeats against Arsenal (3-1) and Brighton (1-3). Before these two losses, Ten Hag wasn't even a Top 10 candidate in this race, so at least odds-wise, the Dutch situation has gotten much worse lately.

With Manchester United languishing in 13th position after five games, trailing leaders Manchester City by nine points and sitting seven points behind Tottenham and Liverpool, Ten Hag's position is far from secure, and he is currently priced at 7/1.

Other candidates and what to bet?

After the Top 3 trio, the field expands quite rapidly. Rob Edwards (17/2) faces pressure as Luton Town has yet to secure a point from the four matches the newly promoted club has played in the Premier League. Wolverhampton's Gary O'Neil is priced at 12/1 after one win and four losses.

Fulham's Marco Silva (14/1), Bournemouth's Andoni Iraola (16/1), and Crystal Palace's Roy Hodgson (16/1) are the next names on the list, but each three have a way more safe position in the sack race.

According to the experts at sportsbettingapp.com, Dyche holds the most value currently betting-wise, even with the reports regarding Heckingbottom's not-so-secure position. Despite the losses, Sheffield United has been very close to securing a good result against bigger clubs (Spurs and Manchester City). Therefore, regarding the coming match week, it's easier to see the Blades upsetting Newcastle at home than Everton, who faces a tricky task against Brentford away.

When will the next managerial sacking happen?

According to historical data, on average, the first managerial departure in the Premier League over the past decade has occurred in October, often coinciding with the international break. The average tenure for the first EPL manager to leave their role has been after 10.8 games. So, based on these stats, we should have some time left for the first sacking.

However, looking back at the previous seasons, the clubs that have fallen in the early relegation battle have most often initiated the first managerial sacking as they seek to avoid relegation desperately. Everton and Sheffield United fit this mold very well, and Manchester United not so much.

Regarding timing, last season saw Scott Parker's dismissal from Bournemouth before the end of August, marking the first in-season managerial departure within that month in 18 years. However, that was not nearly the fastest managerial dismissal in the EPL history, as Kenny Dalglish faced removal from his position at Newcastle United after just two matches in the 1998/99 season.

Remarkably, there hasn't been a single Premier League season without managerial departures since the league's inception in 1992/93, which is why the "No Manager To Leave" option is priced at 250/1 currently.

All betting odds mentioned in this analysis are sourced from Boyle Sports