Why Arsenal will regret pursuing Toney over Watkins
Cameron Smith
- 22 Oct 2023 13:15 CDT
- 5 min read
Arsenal’s hopes of signing Ollie Watkins have all but ended following his new five-year deal at Aston Villa, which was signed in early October 2023.
The England international had previously been on the Gunners’ radar, with Edu even negotiating a possible move with Watkins’ agent, as exclusively revealed by FootballTransfers.
Chelsea were also keen on signing the former Brentford star, but a deal now looks extremely unlikely given his new contract at Villa Park.
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Watkins is a self-proclaimed Arsenal fan, but his decision to sign a new contract at Aston Villa has likely ended links with a move to the Emirates Stadium.
However, Arsenal may well come to rue their failure to land the Englishman. While Watkins has scored five goals and provided four assists in nine Premier League games, Gunners duo Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Jesus have a combined three goals between them, and neither have produced an assist yet this campaign.
It’s not a huge issue for Arsenal - they sit second in the Premier League table after all - but they are lacking a consistent goal threat through the middle and an over-reliance on Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli could prove a problem if they are heavily marked by opponents.
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Therefore, Arsenal’s rumoured pursuit of a new striker comes as little surprise. Watkins was on their wish-list before his new contract, while Brentford’s Ivan Toney remains a real target.
Watkins’ countryman, and likely competitor for a place in the Three Lions’ Euro 2024 squad, is currently serving a footballing ban for betting breaches, but he will return to action in January and a move to Arsenal is on the cards.
However, Mikel Arteta’s side may come to regret identifying Toney as their primary target.
Ivan Toney or Ollie Watkins?
Although Watkins was admired by the Arsenal hierarchy and they discussed a move, links with Toney were certainly stronger and a major push for Watkins could have perhaps convinced him to hold off signing a contract extension at Villa.
Toney, of course, netted more in the English top flight last season (20 to Watkins’ 15) but he will not have played for nine months by the time January rolls around and there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to hit the ground running if he joins Arsenal once his ban ends.
Watkins, on the other hand, has started the 2023-24 season in spectacular form, both in regards to goal-scoring and his all-round game. The 27-year-old is an expert channel-runner and he combines that with excellent movement and security in possession.
In fact, Watkins is losing the ball just 3.37 times per 90 this campaign, as per SciSports, which is less than Toney last season (9.16) and both Nketiah (3.65) and Jesus (11.08) this year.
He is involved in far less build-up play than Jesus, which explains the difference in the two statistics, but Watkins could have been an improvement on Nketiah as they pair are built in a similar mould.
His creativity has also gone up a level this campaign - as seen by his tally of four league assists already (only two shy of his total from 2022-23) - and Watkins is an instinctive finisher who can shift the ball and shoot quickly better than almost every striker in the league.
What has been said?
Furthermore, former Arsenal and Manchester United defender Mikael Silvestre believes that Watkins would be a better option than Toney for the Gunners.
He recently told GGRecon: “The team always needs healthy competition and it needs quality. So if Arsenal were to sign another striker in the near future, then it would be Watkins over Toney if the decision was up to me.
"Right now you have Eddie Nketiah at the club alongside Gabriel Jesus, but signing a third striker could present them with a luxury that could be useful at this level. Especially when you consider the amount of games that Arsenal could potentially play this season."
Toney is a brilliant player and his hold-up play is a level above Watkins’, although the Villa man is an underrated target man at times, but he lacks his countryman’s dynamism and his betting ban means he isn’t playing.
On the other hand, Watkins is flying and is proving just why Villa were so keen to tie him down to a new long-term deal.
