Don't believe the hype! England won't win the Euros

England have a good shot at Euro 2024 but there are too many flaws in the squad and in the manager for them to be considered as genuine champions.

First up is their manager’s inbuilt cautiousness. Too often Gareth Southgate, recently linked with Manchester United, has played with a goalkeeper and up to seven naturally defensive players, leaving the likes of Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane needing to win games by themselves.

Does anyone really think he will pack Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane into his starting line up in the biggest Euros matches with it all on the line, against the likes of Italy, France, Spain or Germany?

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Neither does Southgate convince from the sidelines; in the big moments under his watch England have allowed games to drift away from them.

Then you have to consider the various issues around the positions in their team which seem to be ignored when fans and pundits are putting together their pre-tournament predictions.

England's goalkeeper issues and defensive problems

Firstly, Jordan Pickford is not up to it, probably has never been, and neither are his deputies. This is an issue that gets glossed over all too often.

All top teams need a top goalkeeper and international sides are no different. We have to call Pickford what he is, an average goalkeeper for a perennial relegation contender.

John Stones’ best work at club level in the last year or so has come in midfield and even further up the pitch. Pep Guardiola hasn’t fielded Stones in an orthodox back four for a significant period of time in recent months, preferring to utilise his qualities further up the pitch.

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The Manchester City manager clearly feels he’s got better centre-backs at his disposal. He too has had a stop-start season due to injury.

But it’s beside Stones that the problems really begin. Harry Maguire is again being picked as Manchester United’s left-sided centre back but if Lisandro Martinez was fit he would be either on the right side or not playing at all.

Maguire was on the scrapheap last year and there have been calls for the past couple of years for Gareth Southgate to move on from him. That has not happened yet and all his understudies are either unproven or not up to the required standard.

Given an injury or a suspension, it would be hard to see England winning a Euros knockout match with the likes of Jarrad Branthwaite, Lewis Dunk, Joe Gomez or Ezri Konsa marshalling the defence.

Luke Shaw would appear to be the left-back in a lot of people’s fantasy Euros XI but it ignores the fact that he’s currently unfit, has played little more than 30 England matches in 10 YEARS and, also, that again he is the best of a bad bunch.

He’s Southgate’s first-choice, having appeared there three times during qualification but he’s also had to use other players in that position. Ben Chilwell struggles to stay fit and appears past his best, while others like Bukayo Saka, in a wing-back role, and Rico Lewis have been tried there too.

Southgate has also shoehorned Kieran Trippier into left-back as well as Fikayo Tomori. If Shaw is fit, he will play, if not, then England don’t have an outstanding candidate in the position.

At right-back, meanwhile, one player likely to be ruled out is Arsenal's Ben White.

Will Southgate put out a midfield which can control matches?

Declan Rice is nailed on for midfield and much of the England fan hope is built around the Arsenal man. He is a good player but up to this point in his career, aged 25, has achieved very little.

Yes, he is now involved in a title race but most of his career has been spent in midtable or even further beneath that. We are yet to see what he is truly made of when the chips are down, which is when the truly world-class player comes to the fore.

That is true for a lot of these England players; the Manchester City contingent have won plenty, as have some of the Liverpool men, but in general, this is a group of contenders, and not achievers.

And there are significant question marks over who will partner Rice. Kalvin Phillips would appear to be out of the running following a nightmare start to his West Ham loan spell but rule nothing out with Southgate.

Jordan Henderson is still in contention despite his has-been status and the fact he has become a bit of a meme since moving to Ajax. He should never have been called up after moving to Saudi Arabia but Southgate painted himself into a corner.

It took an age for Southgate to call up Kobbie Mainoo and he did so with some reluctance. He is good, yes, but with only a handful of games under his belt for United, is he safe to throw in at this juncture?

Take your pick from the rest. Trent Alexander-Arnold was a midfielder in his youth and would appear to be coming back into the position again. He is dangerous on the ball in that position but does not possess the nous to command an international midfield. Then you have Mason Mount and Conor Gallagher.

Rice and one more is what will happen but the jury is out on what the midfield shape will look like.

Will Southgate take a leaf out of Ancelotti's Bellingham playbook?

In front of that duo, will Southgate be persuaded to take a leaf out of Carlo Ancelotti’s book and let Bellingham loose? His season has been phenomenal as the Real Madrid manager has freed him from common midfield responsibility. He has been allowed to float further forward, as a striker of sorts, and the reward has been creativity and goals.

To achieve something similar with England, Southgate would have to remove Kane and play with a split striker system. Does anyone realistically see him doing that? Instead, Bellingham is likely to play with fewer dimensions, further back in the England midfield. That will end up blunting his impact.

Southgate unlikely to play Saka and Foden together

Fans also seem to think that Saka and Foden might play together on the flanks. It won’t happen; Southgate will pick one or the other. They haven’t been great partners for England, only appearing on the pitch together 12 times, and usually one has to be accommodated at the expense of the other.

Saka’s played wing-back, Foden on the right, but there is no question that they are competing for the same place in the team; off that right wing. On form and impact, not to mention big-game pedigree, Foden has got the edge meaning Saka will be kicking his heels.

On the other side, it could be Jack Grealish, out of form and injured, or else Marcus Rashford, having a poor season and unconvincing.

England unconvincing in the knockout rounds

England's knockout record under Southgate is modest; they beat Colombia on penalties at the World Cup in 2018 and won against a poor Sweden before being knocked out by Croatia.

The last Euros was a bit of a joke, in that England got six of their seven matches at home, including the final, while other contenders had to traipse across the continent.

The only “away” match they played was in Rome against the least fancied team in the draw, Ukraine. Then they needed almighty fortune to squeak by Denmark in the semis.

At the World Cup, they beat Senegal in the second round, arguably the easiest game available, before being put out by France quite routinely.

In a winnable World Cup semi-final, in a winnable UEFA Nations League semi-final and in a more than winnable Euro 2020 final, Southgate and England have been found out.

They don’t use their attacking players properly, they sit in and defend, and, ultimately, concede bad goals. Their players make too many mistakes in possession, under pressure and at big moments.

It will happen again this summer.