Toney picking West Ham over Spurs should be an EASY decision

Robin Bairner

• 25 Mar 2024 09:17 CDT
• 4 min read

West Ham are moving to sign Brentford striker Ivan Toney, according to a report, with Arsenal and Chelse having fallen out of the race for the 28-year-old attacker.

The Bees slapped a price tag of €117 million (£100m) on the striker to fend off January interest in the two Premier League giants for the forward, but a transfer appears inevitable in the summer, albeit at a much lower price point.

FootballInsider believes that with Chelsea and Arsenal, who baulked at Brentford’s asking price in January, falling out of the race, the Hammers believe they can land the striker.

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Tottenham have been left as their main rivals for Toney, who has four goals in 10 Premier League games since returning from a gambling ban.

For Toney, the choice between the two clubs should be a relatively simple one: he has to go to West Ham.

Data analytics firm SciSports shows using its Career Advice tool that the Hammers are a significantly better fit for Toney than Ange Postecoglou’s side.

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West Ham before Spurs for Toney

While West Ham get a Club Fit score of 79 when playing time is prioritised, Spurs land a measly 53. This is based around several different considerations, including potential development as well as formation and style of the team.

In this case, West Ham are third in the Premier League while Tottenham are fourth from bottom – ahead of only Arsenal, Manchester City and Luton Town.

Toney would indeed enjoy star status in David Moyes’ squad. SciSports indicates that he would instantly become a key player at the London Stadium, with only Lucas Paqueta, Tomas Soucek and Jarrod Bowen rated more highly than him by the analysis experts.

If he were to reach the level he attained before his ban, only the Brazil international would be clear of him.

Currently, Toney’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) is set at just €20m, yet this is skewed by the fact that he has only just returned after a lengthy ban. West Ham could not realistically hope to sign him for such a fee.

Equally, reports that Brentford are holding out for €93m (£80m) are similarly fanciful.

Toney has only a year left to run on his contract and the Bees cannot afford to risk losing him for nothing at the end of his deal.

By design they have previously chased away suitors due to their transfer valuation, but at some point this summer it is likely they will have to buckle. If West Ham can make them do it, they would be a good option for Toney.