Jarrad Branthwaite: Everton are RIGHT to hold out for Josko Gvardiol fee from Man Utd

Robin Bairner

• Updated: 17 Jun 2024 05:57 CDT
• 9 min read

Manchester United and Everton are presently locked in an arm wrestle over the future of England Euro 2024 defender Jarrad Branthwaite.

Both teams are, naturally, seeking to secure the best deal for themselves.

Man Utd, in the belief that Everton will be forced into a sale before 30 June in order to satisfy the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) are seeking to lowball the Toffees.

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FootballTransfers understands that they are confident of getting a deal done by the end of the month, yet a reported opening bid of €41 million (£35m) seemed outrageously low. Man Utd will return with a bigger offer, having already agreed contractual terms with the player.

Everton, for their part, are standing firm. The Merseyside outfit want £77m for their star man and are not budging from that valuation.

According to ESPN, Sean Dyche’s side have pinned their price against that of Josko Gvardiol, who moved from RB Leipzig to Manchester City last summer for €90m a year ago.

READ MORE: Premier League summer transfers 2024: All the Done Deals

While this might sound ambitious, it is strangely not as far-fetched as it may appear.

Firstly, it’s worth noting that City’s decision to pay €90m for Gvardiol was not a market-breaking sum. His Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) at that point was in the region of €70-75m, with the price Pep Guardiola’s side paid right at the top end of his estimate. In other words, he was expensive, but not ridiculously so.

Branthwaite’s ETV currently is only €26.2m, with the top end of his estimate maxing out at less than €35m.

Compared

Josko Gvardiol

D (CL)

Man City

Josko Gvardiol

D (CL)

Man City

VS

Jarrad Branthwaite

D (C)

Everton

Jarrad Branthwaite

D (C)

Everton

Josko Gvardiol

Jarrad Branthwaite

Why is his value so far short of Gvardiol? It comes down to the level he has played at and a lack of volume of games.

The Croat had played two complete seasons with RB Leipzig, accumulating 87 appearances at which he played a strong level. Not only did he play in the Bundesliga, his value was inflated by both Champions League and international displays.

Branthwaite does not yet have that level of longevity. He only has 41 Everton appearances behind him, has never played in the Champions League proper (he did feature in qualifying for PSV during a loan spell) and has yet to make his England debut.

In short: the Englishman is not as proven as Gvardiol was.

Branthwaite as good as Gvardiol

However, that does not mean he is definitively a poorer player. Indeed, this is where Everton will point to his current ability.

Comparing Branthwaite’s current level with that Gvardiol had 12 months ago when he moved to City, it is apparent that the pair are very close according to data analytics firm SciSports.

It produces a SciSkill rating for each player based on hundreds of in-game data points.

Jarrad Branthwaite v Josko Gvardiol: Career development

The trajectories of both Branthwaite and Gvardiol are similar, and while the latter has enjoyed a boost since going to the Premier League champions, the Englishman is of the standard the Croat was when he moved for €90m.

So this is where the deadlock arrives. Everton are holding out for the Gvardiol value based upon Branthwaite’s performance compared to the Croatian, but Man Utd are only prepared to pay a price closer to his ETV based on his (relative) lack of experience. Both have evidence that can justify their stance.

Who will prevail from this position is unclear, with the decisive factor potentially being Everton’s need to sell to satisfy PSR. If they can truly satisfy these conditions without selling Branthwaite, the pressure really is on Man Utd to raise their bid.