Edson Alvarez to Man Utd: Why West Ham star is more Antony Mk.II than Casemiro

Robin Bairner

Updated: 20 Jun 2024 08:40 CDT
12 min read

Edson Alvarez, Man Utd, West Ham, 2023/24 — © IMAGO

Manchester United have been linked with a surprising move for West Ham midfielder Edson Alvarez this summer.

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Fabrizio Romano broke the news, and while a deal is still in its very early stages, Alvarez is said to be a player that those at Old Trafford are in agreement is a potential replacement for Casemiro, should the ex-Real Madrid star depart.

But, is the 26-year-old a suitable stand in for the Brazil international?

Edson Alvarez analysis

In terms of profile, it’s surprising to see United chase such a player. For one thing, he will turn 27 in October. The Red Devils were thought to be favouring younger talent.

Similarly, he’s unlikely to be of the price bracket that would have attracted the Old Trafford club.

Alvarez’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) stands at €35.9 million, yet Romano admitted this deal is unlikely to be cheap. The Mexican is under contract until 2028, so West Ham have power in this deal and are armed with the experience of driving a big price for Declan Rice last year.

So neither the player’s age or price point make much sense.

Alvarez vs Casemiro: 2023/24

Compared

Edson Álvarez

DM (CR), D (C)

West Ham United

Edson Álvarez

DM (CR), D (C)

West Ham United

VS

Casemiro

DM (CRL)

Man Utd

Casemiro

DM (CRL)

Man Utd

2023/2024

Season Statistics

2023/2024

46	Appearances	32
3533	Minutes Played	2551
103	Tackles	99
56	Interceptions	26
19	Yellow Cards	10
61	Fouls	40
4	Goals	5

What about ability then?

Data analytics firm SciSports appear dubious about this deal. Alvarez is rated as having the ability of a rotation player at Man Utd. He is West Ham’s fourth-strongest player in their eyes behind Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen, Tomas Soucek and Mohammed Kudus.

SciSports does indicate that he has the capacity to become a regular, but surely United want a player who can make an impact immediately if they’re spending big money.

His performance last season, meanwhile, was unremarkable. He rated among the bottom third of central midfielders in the Premier League in SciSports’ estimations.

It was his first season in England and allowances should be made, but again this is hardly the performance of a Manchester United player.

He is, at least, similar to Casemiro in terms of his profile. He is a strong all-round player who primarily breaks up play. Compared to the Brazilian, meanwhile, he offer more on-ball quality, acting as more of a playmaker from deep. Naturally this is attractive.

Alvarez vs Casemiro: Playing styles

In terms of the breakdown of his performance, Alvarez does not rate in to the top 30 of Premier League midfielders for any of SciSports’ main performance indicators apart from ball retention.

Casemiro, on the other hand, hits the top 30 in four categories - and remember this was in a poor season by his standing. On form in 2022-23, he hit this bracket in eight categories.

Erik ten Hag has largely got it wrong with players he worked with at Ajax, most notably Antony, who he splashed a whopping €95 million on two years ago.

In Alvarez, he is threatening a repeat. The Mexican is not a player of Casemiro’s quality - and it appears he never will be. Man Utd would be well advised to look elsewhere.