Amorim’s first big Man Utd decision: To gamble on the devil he knows or the star he doesn’t

Robin Bairner

• 7 Nov 2024 02:10 CST
• 9 min read

One of Ruben Amorim’s top priorities once he arrives at Manchester United will be to sign a central midfield player.

The Man Utd squad built at great expense by Erik ten Hag still has gaping holes in it, with short-term surgery required to make the Old Trafford side great again.

There has been exciting transfer talk of a deal for Viktor Gyokeres, but in reality, there are more sober problems to deal with, such as the gaping holes in the midfield.

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Naturally, Amorim has been linked with his old Sporting CP ally Morten Hjulmand, yet with the Portuguese eager not to “betray” the Lisbon club, United have found a better and cheaper immediate option.

Sky Sport Deutschland reports that Bayern Munich’s Leon Goretzka has emerged as a January transfer target.

Largely out of the picture at the Allianz Arena, where he has been given scraps as a substitute, there is a deal to be struck here, with United having already signed Noussair Mazraoui and Matthijs de Ligt both signed from FCB with varying results.

Goretzka, meanwhile, is the type of immediate addition that can work as a sticking plaster of at least one of the Red Devils’ problems.

Compared

Leon Goretzka

M, DM (C)

Bayern

Leon Goretzka

M, DM (C)

Bayern

VS

Morten Hjulmand

M, DM (C)

Sporting CP

Morten Hjulmand

M, DM (C)

Sporting CP

€19.5M	ETV	€15.2M
€14.6M - €24.4M	ETV Range	€11.4M - €18.9M
29 years old (06 Feb, 1995)	Age	25 years old (25 Jun, 1999)
Germany	Nationality	Denmark

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At 29, he might not be the age profile that United would ideally like to sign, but he is capable of operating in the role that Hjulmand performs so impressively under Amorim at Sporting.

Both, after all, are of similar stature and multi-talented midfielders. Hjulmand is unusually tall for a box-to-box player at 185cm, but Goretzka stands 4cm taller. The athletic profile of the Germany international, though, is even more impressive as he covers ground at greater speed and deeper into games.

The 29-year-old, meanwhile, possesses a wealth of top-level experience and has an Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of around €20m. It would take at least double that to sign Hjulmand - probably more.

Amorim’s midfield conundrum

Statistically, Goretzka smashed Hjulmand in each major central midfield metric last season, including his capacity to carry the ball, something that Amorim values highly in his players. In this regard, he looks the smarter option.

But a deal for Goretzka is not a move without risk. The Bochum-born star has been on the wane for a couple of years now, according to data analytics firm SciSports.

Goretzka outperforms Hjulmand

Goretzka has shown what is describe as a “rapid decline” in his form over the course of the last six months. He has bounced back from these episodes before, but the trend is clear.

There is a danger United could be sleepwalking themselves into another Casemiro situation if they opt for the cheap option once again.

On the other hand, Hjulmand has made “minimal development” over the past six months and represents a different kind of risk: there is no guarantee that the Dane, who is already 25 years old, will reach the heights Goretzka is currently at.

Goretzka has a SciSkill score, calculated using hundreds of in-game data points, of 94.4. He is not expected to get any better. Hjulmund, on the other hand, has a SciSkill of 87.3 and a potential of 95.1.

United are not, of course, obliged to take either path, yet with reinforcements required, the clock is ticking with the January transfer window just around the corner.

This could be one of Amorim’s first decisions when coming in the door at Old Trafford, and while it is unlikely to define his Man Utd legacy, it will set the tone for what is to follow. It’s vital he gets it right.