Cody Gakpo: The stat that should dissuade Man Utd from overpaying for World Cup star

Cameron Smith

• Updated: 23 May 2023 09:00 CDT
• 4 min read

Cody Gakpo has been the major breakout star of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, with the Dutch forward scoring in all three group stage games on the way to helping the Netherlands finish top of Group A with seven points.

It means that Gakpo, 23, is currently the joint-top goal-scorer in the tournament so far, along with Ecuador's Enner Valencia and France's Kylian Mbappe.

With Memphis Depay benched by Louis van Gaal for the opening two group stage matches, Gakpo has been the hero for the Netherlands during the early stages of the competition. Playing in a slightly unfamiliar central role, as either a No.10 or a centre forward, Gakpo has thrived, despite usually playing on the left flank at club level.

READ: 'We could have signed him for £20m!' - Man Utd fans react to Cody Gakpo's third 2022 World Cup goal

That versatility is something of note, with Gakpo able to be used across the forward line, which will no doubt have impressed the clubs interested in signing him from PSV in the January transfer window.

Furthermore, he has had an incredible start to the 2022/23 season. The Dutchman has scored 13 goals and assisted a further 17 in just 24 appearances in all competitions for PSV this term - an alarmingly good return.

However, it is worth noting that Eredivisie exports haven't always performed well in the Premier League, such as Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Vincent Janssen and Steven Bergwijn. And, one stat from his World Cup campaign should play into Man Utd's thinking when deciding whether or not to purchase the 23-year-old, especially as his price tag will have likely increased in the last few weeks.

READ: Gakpo told to 'follow his heart' amid Man Utd and Liverpool transfer interest

A huge xG overperformance

So far during the 2022 World Cup, Gakpo has taken just a measly four shots, which is a surprisingly low rate given he is taking 4.1 shots per 90 in the Eredivise this term.

But that isn't the stat that could worry Man Utd. The stat that shows they should be cautious is that Gakpo has scored three goals from an xG of just 0.2 during this World Cup.

That is an enormous overperformance and one that borders on the ridiculous. Of course, it indicates that Gakpo is a great finisher, which is good news, but is a rate that seems unsustainable as xG typically evens out. For example, Darwin Nunez massively overperformed his xG in his final season at Benfica (28 goals to 15 xG) and he has returned to a normal rate this term at Liverpool having made a big-money move.

Gakpo's left-footed strike against Ecuador was simply superb and should be given credit, as should all of his finishes this tournament, but it could be a concern that this level of xG overperformance simply can't be sustained over the course of a regular season.

Plenty of stars have earned a transfer following an impressive international tournament - Robin Gosens springs to mind at Euro 2020 - but then have failed to replicate the same level of performance for their new club.

Gakpo is an immense player and would likely be a hit at Old Trafford were he to join Man Utd, but the Red Devils should be careful not to overpay for the Dutch international off the back of an impressive World Cup.